In case the .png file doesn't show up here,

    GNU Backgammon  Position ID: c9sEAyA2O4wHAA
                    Match ID   : UQmgACAACAAA
    +24-23-22-21-20-19------18-17-16-15-14-13-+  O: adrian
    | O     O  O  O  O |   |    O           X |  2 points
    | O     O  O  O  O |   |                X |  
    |       O          |   |                X |  
    |                  |   |                X |  
    |                  |   |                  |  
    |                  |BAR|                  |v 5 point match
    |                  |   |                  |  
    |                  |   |                  |  
    |                X |   |                  |  
    |    X  X     X  X |   |          X     O |  On roll
    | O  X  X     X  X |   |          X     O |  1 point
    +-1--2--3--4--5--6-------7--8--9-10-11-12-+  X: WildThing (Cube: 2)

This occurred during today's tourney finals, and here's the whispers:


Here's gnu's opinion:

Yeah, but notice there is still a gammon chance, so we'd come out even on the bet!

Let's review this position once more, this time with more attention on theory.

Pip-counts : orange 110 - 99 white
Score :        orange  1-2       white
Match:         5-pointer

Consulting Kit's eauity table, the MWCs are as follows: (4 away- 3 away)

orange's MWC: 41%
white's   MWC: 59%

Now :

1- If orange doubles and wins, his MWC will be 100%
2- If orange doesn't double and wins, his MWC will be 59%
3- If orange doubles and loses, his MWC will be 0%
4- If orange doesn't double and loses, his MWC will be 17%

Risk = 17%

Gain = 41%

Take point = 17/(17+41) = 29%

Orange's GWC is 61% > 29%

So far it's a clear double for orange.

Now for white:

1- If he takes and wins, his MWC will be 100%
2- If he  passes, his MWC will be 41%
3- If he takes and loses, his MWC will be 0%


Risk = 41%

Gain = 59%

Take point = 41/(41+59) = 41%

White's GWC is 39% < 41%

So it's a clear double/pass as the gain/loss equity is heavily favores orange. So our friend who has voted fot double/take is very wrong. But those who have voted for "no double" might have probably thought like don : it's too good to double as orange may win a gammon.

But as you see, gammon win chances for orange is just 5.5%. In the rest of possibilties, orange will win 55% of the times, but will lose 39% of the times that would be very costly. So again, the gain/loss is heavily favored for doubling now. In GNUBG's words, not doubling is a "bad mistake" : a whopping equity loss of 0.149

I think we don't need to calculate the GWC exactly to decide whether it's a take or not, we just need to take a look at risk/gain to conclude. Here orange risks 17% of MWC to gain 41%, whille white risks 41% to gain 59%. The conclsuion is quite clear I think.

you're right