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FIBS Board backgammon forum > Forum > Backgammon > Backgammon problems > Position #27
Poll
Question: White on roll. Proper cube action?
Double/Take - 3 (27.3%)
Double/Pass - 6 (54.5%)
No double/Take - 0 (0%)
Too good to double/Pass - 2 (18.2%)
I'm as clueless as you, damned PL! - 0 (0%)
Total Voters: 11

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Author Topic: Position #27  (Read 982 times)
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PersianLord
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« on: May 06, 2008, 05:11:10 PM »
Position information:

Pip-count: Red 109-107 White
Score:       Red     0-0     White
Match:                   7-pointer

White on roll. Proper cube action?
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« on: May 06, 2008, 05:11:10 PM »


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PersianLord
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« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2008, 01:03:20 AM »
5 votes till now and no analysis  thumbdown
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What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.

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playBunny
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« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2008, 02:41:43 AM »
Lol, I'll bite - even though I got it wrong. laugh
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PersianLord
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« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2008, 07:17:30 AM »
Quote from: playBunny on May 07, 2008, 02:41:43 AM
Lol, I'll bite - even though I got it wrong. laugh
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What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.

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playBunny
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« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2008, 07:34:10 PM »
Cube Rollout
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PersianLord
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« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2008, 10:53:19 PM »
Quote from: playBunny on May 07, 2008, 07:34:10 PM
Cube Rollout


Thank you for rollout and analysis.

But PB, I still favor the drop. Why? Well, backgammon is a game of probablities and we can't rely on desired "lucky" rolls to change the discourse of a game. In this position, 44% of the times, white will point on red, which may even lead to gammons (9%). In other 54%, most of them white will widen the gap in race. From the rolls you pointed to, in 6-1, 5-2 and 5-1, white still will be the CLEAR favorite, and in other cases, just in 5-5 and 6-6 red will probably become the slight favorite. but they're just 6% likely to happen, right?

well, all in all, I will pass this everytime I'm offered, but I admit that my skills certainly don't match yours and GNUBG's. lol
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What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.

Friedrich Nietzsche
blitzxz
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« Reply #6 on: May 13, 2008, 11:14:05 AM »
I'm very doubtful about gnu's evaluation here. It doesn't make sense to go for take where risk for losing is huge and even 4 points is not that far away. 4-0 would be big lead in 7-point match and 1-0 wouldn't mean almost nothing. There's also possibilities for red to win 4 points with redouble if he escapes. Holding cube with even race is clear advantage but that's still far from this position. Practically it's okei to take if you are underdog. That will shorten the match and maximaze luck. But if you're favorite to win, take is very bad. Even the gnu's "objective" judgement might change if you make longer rollout. (I started to make 2-ply rollout with just little bit better settings then playBunny and after 200 games it's still showing pass. 3-ply might be interesting but that takes a week or so..)
« Last Edit: May 13, 2008, 11:22:50 AM by blitzxz » Logged
socksey
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« Reply #7 on: May 13, 2008, 02:39:16 PM »
This is the beginning of a 7 pt match.  So, what if there is a gammon?  Great chance of white to hit and cover.  If not, red still has a chance to save that beautiful board and hit later.  Be brave!  Double take!   laugh

socksey



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PersianLord
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« Reply #8 on: May 13, 2008, 04:00:36 PM »
I agree wholeheartedly with blitzxz  thumbsup . If your rollout shows that D/P is instead correct, then my initial analysis will get credit, lol. I'm awaiting to see your ultimate analysis/rollout.

Regards
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What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.

Friedrich Nietzsche
blitzxz
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« Reply #9 on: May 13, 2008, 09:25:05 PM »
Quote from: PersianLord on May 13, 2008, 04:00:36 PM
I agree wholeheartedly with blitzxz  thumbsup . If your rollout shows that D/P is instead correct, then my initial analysis will get credit, lol. I'm awaiting to see your ultimate analysis/rollout.

Regards

I made the rollout and it was even closer but still take. 3-ply might chance things...  Smiley Any way pass and take are so close here that practical reasons are more important.

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0,538 (Money:  +0,536)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0,977
2. Double, pass         +1,000  ( +0,023)
3. No double            +0,741  ( -0,236)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0,739 0,081 0,001 - 0,261 0,023 0,001 CL  +0,538 CF  +0,741
 [0,001 0,001 0,000 - 0,001 0,001 0,000 CL   0,002 CF   0,004]
Player You owns 2-cube:
  0,750 0,079 0,001 - 0,250 0,022 0,001 CL  +1,140 CF  +0,977
 [0,001 0,002 0,000 - 0,001 0,001 0,000 CL   0,005 CF   0,006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 822562662 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,12
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
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PersianLord
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« Reply #10 on: May 13, 2008, 11:41:53 PM »
Quote from: socksey on May 13, 2008, 02:39:16 PM
This is the beginning of a 7 pt match.  So, what if there is a gammon? 

lol, then can't I ask that "so, what if you lose the match right away?"  Cool!
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What is good? All that heightens the feeling of power, the will to power, power itself in man.

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socksey
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« Reply #11 on: May 14, 2008, 12:09:11 AM »
 24  It's happened!   24

The point is, it was FUN!   Yes

socksey



"I don't make jokes; I just watch the governmentand report the facts." - Will Rogers
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