FIBS Board backgammon forum

Here red might find hitting quite tempting, but it's actually a terrible blunder. Considering red's almost empty board, white will land for sure and then he'll have more than enough chances to hit loose one of red's blots in his board or his outfield. And because the cube value is on 2, white's gammon chances will end the world for red. Thus, red must keep his valuable anchor and play safe.


    1. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/15                       Eq.:  -0.976
        27.7%   2.9%   0.0% -  72.3%  25.0%   0.2%
     
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/21 22/16*                Eq.:  -1.312 ( -0.336)
        28.3%   5.5%   0.1% -  71.7%  41.4%   0.9%
     
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/21 7/1                   Eq.:  -1.419 ( -0.443)
        21.7%   3.2%   0.1% -  78.3%  40.1%   0.4%
       
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/21 8/2                   Eq.:  -1.427 ( -0.451)
        21.1%   3.0%   0.1% -  78.9%  40.0%   0.4%
       
    5. Cubeful 2-ply    bar/21 13/7                  Eq.:  -1.485 ( -0.509)
        22.8%   3.3%   0.0% -  77.2%  44.3%   0.5%
       
As cen be seen, hitting will win more for red, but also will cause more gammon losses. At this score and situation, red should be more conservative and avoid risky moves. Thus, running to the outfield is recommended.