Oops, I forgot about the cube action. If we're hit, we'll turn the cube, he'll take and we're playing for two points again. In some ways, this makes the calculation simpler.

*Revised:* my rough estimate is that the backgammon is about a 1-in-72 proposition, or about 1.4%. We lose two points about 10% of the time. Risk vs reward calculation:

In terms of match equity, if we play it safe we go to Crawford up 2-0. That's a match equity of .75 and serves as the base. If we lose 2 points, the roles are reversed and we will have an equity of .25. And of course if we manage to win a bg, that gives us an equity of 1.0. So, we're risking .5 equity to gain .25 equity. Seems to me that we'd need twice as many backgammons as losses to make it worth trying for bg, and we're nowhere near close to that.

Of course, in the real FIBS world, one would have to calculate the probablity that your opponent would drop if you take too much time analyzing this roll instead of just moving.... (c: