Game 2, move 4:Herd, cube decision

[diane]

Position ID: 4OfBYBBsG/AJIA
Match ID: MBmgAAAACAAA

[stiefnu]

(click to show/hide)

Looks like I'm well out-voted but could this not be a take?  Clemstog still have plenty to do and, other than their admittedly strong 4 point board, have a couple of blots with no great board position.  Meanwhile, we have time to build our board and perhaps make life a bit difficult for them.

[stog]

(click to show/hide)

that's the spirit-- the game has much meat left on it.. might even switch my vote

[Krazula]

(click to show/hide)

Yes, it might be a take. I'm not sure and I vote for drop though, I think its probably a close decision.

[ah_clem]

rollout

(click to show/hide)

Clemstog has an impressive board, but no checkers in the zone so the Herd's blot is probably safe for a roll or two. Meanwhile, the Herd has the bar point anchor, and all it will take is for the Herd to roll a 5 to transition this into a very playable holding game.  So, despite the weak structure and being massively outboarded, the Herd should take this one.

Of course, I say all this with the benefit of looking at a 2-ply rollout.  At the time, I couldn't decide whether the Herd had a take or not so I just pushed the cube according to Woolsey's law.  One of the idea's behind that law is that it gives your opponent a chance to make an error.





Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.477 (Money:  +0.439)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.816
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.184)
3. No double            +0.716  ( -0.100)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.640 0.233 0.007 - 0.360 0.076 0.006 CL  +0.477 CF  +0.716
 [0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.010]
Player You owns 2-cube:
  0.644 0.246 0.006 - 0.356 0.081 0.008 CL  +1.095 CF  +0.816
 [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.012 CF   0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 885753883 and quasi-random dice
Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.1
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]