Game 4, move 17: Herd 6-3

[diane]

Position ID: 170BAAzGdmcAAQ
Match ID: UQmvABAAGAAA

[stiefnu]

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IMHO, 19/10 would be a miserable move.  Far better, surely, is 10/4, 7/4.  We could only be hit with a 61 and even then would be favourite to re-enter, with the added bonus of a possible return hit with a 2.  Let's put him behind a 5-prime, that's got to increase our chance of winning this game and so the match.

[ah_clem]

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19/10 is the "obvious" play - we've got him trapped, now bring our runners around. The thing is, we still trail by 24 pips, so we want to retain contact and moving our last sentry around to join the army means we won't have any contact if he leaps.

Making the 5-prime seems a lot better.  Yes, it gives him a 1/18 shot to hit, but we still have lots of counterplay.  The only thing I don't like about it is that it makes 5-1 play well for him when 5-1 is a disaster if we don't make the 4 point.

That said, we will likely be bearing in against his anchor and having a gap on the four point is not pretty.  I say close it now.

10/4 7/4

[diane]

Since this seems decided, and I wont be here tonight, I have decided to move it along.

[ah_clem]

rollout

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    1. Rollout          10/4 7/4                     Eq.:  +0.471
       0.753 0.144 0.004 - 0.247 0.017 0.000 CL  +0.471 CF  +0.471
      [0.001 0.004 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          19/13 8/5                    Eq.:  +0.312 ( -0.159)
       0.672 0.102 0.004 - 0.328 0.016 0.001 CL  +0.312 CF  +0.312
      [0.002 0.004 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    3. Rollout          19/10                        Eq.:  +0.271 ( -0.200)
       0.651 0.089 0.001 - 0.349 0.015 0.000 CL  +0.271 CF  +0.271
      [0.002 0.004 0.000 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 926175629 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]