[diane]

So..do you want this?

[ah_clem]

This looks like it's pretty clearly a drop.  The Herd has advantages in position (a four point board vs squat for me), race (20 pips) and threats (gammon threats at that.)  There are simply too many gammon losses to take this.  And I'm quite happy to get out of this with only losing one point.

Pass,

So, what about the cube decision?  Well, pretty much anytime your opponent is relieved to see the cube it's a good indication that you are too good.  And that's my analysis here - the Herd should have played on for gammon.

What's about to happen?  The Herd will bring down two checkers to bring 10 checkers into the zone and prepare to blitz.  Then it's my turn - if I roll a 1 and anchor, it's at least still a cash (probably still too good since an exchange of hits can send a third or fourth checker back).  If I dance, it's at least still a cash. 80% of the time, one of those two things happen.  The other thing that can happen is a fly shot from the bar, which still leaves the Herd with a cash, or a 5 no-hit, which is probably too good. 

The only sequence I see where the Herd does not have a cash is if I shake a 54 and anchor on the golden point.  But the Herd is still mucho favored in that unlikely 1/18 scenario.

Granted, there's little development yet with the 24 and 13 point checkers undisturbed, but that will be corrected in short order.  Seems like a massive too good / pass.

Diane, do you want to do the rollout or should I?

[diane]

does this look right?



Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.705 (Money:  +0.700)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.325  ( +0.325)
3. No double            +0.934  ( -0.066)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.699 0.356 0.015 - 0.301 0.067 0.003 CL  +0.705 CF  +0.934
 [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.010]
Player ah_clem owns 2-cube:
  0.703 0.381 0.014 - 0.297 0.066 0.009 CL  +1.604 CF  +1.325
 [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 935286991 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[ah_clem]

No, it doesn't look "right"  I said it wasn't a double!  


Must be something wrong with gnu, because I get basically the same numbers....  massive pass, holding is borderline doubtful.  I guess the herd's lack of development makes it correct to cash.




Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.714 (Money:  +0.706)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, pass         +1.000
2. Double, take         +1.349  ( +0.349)
3. No double            +0.949  ( -0.051)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.700 0.357 0.015 - 0.300 0.063 0.003 CL  +0.714 CF  +0.949
 [0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.008]
Player O owns 2-cube:
  0.705 0.383 0.014 - 0.295 0.064 0.005 CL  +1.620 CF  +1.349
 [0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.001 0.001 CL   0.010 CF   0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 931925857 and quasi-random dice
Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[diane]

No, it doesn't look "right"  I said it wasn't a double!  

Yeah....I was tactfully ignoring that...