This is a pretty easy take decision for the Herd - prime vs prime is almost always a take. I didn't expect to catch many passers. So why double?
1) A good strategy for short matches (or the end of long ones) is to get some gammon chances and push the cube. With three Herd blots hanging around and 11 checkers in the zone, there are gammons afoot. Meanwhile, I've got a nice anchor, so I can afford to play somewhat aggressively.
2) PRAT - I have a slight edge in position - a solid four prime, and an anchor vs a broken prime and split runners. I'm slightly ahead in the race and on roll. And with three Herd blots, I have the advantage in threats. That's three for three, although two of the three are marginal leads.
3) Market losers - there are some very good rolls for me (64 44 62 53 54 42) and getting you on the hook for 2 now seems like a good idea. I'm not seeing any really bad rolls for me.
Arguing against the double, if the Herd anchors or covers the bar point blot, I'm in trouble, the homeboard blots aren't in immediate danger, and many of the good rolls are duplicated.
As they say, make bold moves and let the chips fall where they may.