Game 5, move 4: ah_clem 3-2

[diane]

[ah_clem]

Hmmm... I can make another homeboard point.  Or I can anchor and make the 10 point.  Or I can anchor and hit on the bar point.

At anything other than DMP hitting seems clear.  But being 22 pips up in the race and with gammons not counting perhaps a quieter play is called for...

I'll dismiss making the 3 since that leaves the blot on the 10 exposed.  So, which is better: hitting or making the 10?

Let's see if some math helps:  I figure 24/22 13/10 gets me to about 65% GWC.  If I hit and anchor then I have a 50% chance of being hit (18 return shots).  If I'm hit back, it looks close to even, maybe a slight edge to me because of my anchor.  So, figure that hitting risks ~15% GWC.

OTOH, if I'm not hit, my GWC range from about 65% if the Herd anchors on the 4 to ~90% if the Herd dances.  Figure about 80% on average.  Which means that hitting risks 15% to gain 15%.   Hmmm...well that little exercise didn't tell me much.


Aw, who am I fooling here?  Everybody knows that I'm going to hit.  (c:

And now that I've made my decision, I can back it up with some post-hoc reasoning:  After the re-hit, the Herd has three blots to aim at while I have an anchor.  Thus I'm probably more like 55% when hit, so the risk is less than what estimated above.

24/22 10/7*