FIBS Board backgammon forum

Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4

Poll

Move

24/17, 24/15
1 (20%)
24/11
4 (80%)

Total Members Voted: 5

Voting closed: April 27, 2012, 11:52:44 AM

Author Topic: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4  (Read 587 times)

Offline diane

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Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
« on: April 26, 2012, 11:51:12 AM »
Only two real options here...

Should we stay, or should we go...well come and let me kno-o-w....
Never give up on the things that make you smile

FIBS Board backgammon forum

Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
« on: April 26, 2012, 11:51:12 AM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2012, 12:21:05 PM »
[spoiler]
If we stay, gammons are few and don't really matter AtS plus we increase our winning chances by a small amount.

Stay.

[/spoiler]

FIBS Board backgammon forum

Re: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
« Reply #1 on: April 26, 2012, 12:21:05 PM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 13: Herd 6-4
« Reply #2 on: April 30, 2012, 10:11:04 PM »
rollout

[spoiler]

Here running is a small error.  We'll see if the other stay decisions are correct.


XGID=-BCBBBB-----------bdcBbd--:0:0:1:64:4:0:1:5:10

    1. Rollout¹    21/11                        eq:-0.604
      Player:   19.84% (G:0.07% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 80.16% (G:0.90% B:0.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.605..-0.603) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 42.8 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    21/17 21/15                  eq:-0.618 (-0.014)
      Player:   19.09% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 80.91% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.618..-0.618) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 06 seconds

    3. 4-ply       21/15 6/2                    eq:-0.676 (-0.072)
      Player:   16.32% (G:0.06% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 83.68% (G:2.27% B:0.03%)

    4. 3-ply       21/15 5/1                    eq:-0.691 (-0.087)
      Player:   15.58% (G:0.09% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 84.42% (G:2.38% B:0.04%)


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2



[/spoiler]

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