FIBS Board backgammon forum

Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2

Author Topic: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2  (Read 1257 times)

Offline diane

  • Moderator
  • Expert
  • *
  • Posts: 4,328
Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« on: April 27, 2012, 08:25:29 AM »
Stiefnu rolled 6-2 moved the only sensible option, 7/5, 7/1, Herd to move
Never give up on the things that make you smile

Offline Julia_H

  • Moderator
  • Fibsboarder plus
  • ****
  • Posts: 339
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2012, 01:06:41 PM »
Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline ah_clem

  • Moderator
  • Advanced Fibsboarder
  • *
  • Posts: 2,114
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2012, 01:15:30 PM »
Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline ah_clem

  • Moderator
  • Advanced Fibsboarder
  • *
  • Posts: 2,114
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2012, 01:26:13 PM »
Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline Julia_H

  • Moderator
  • Fibsboarder plus
  • ****
  • Posts: 339
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #4 on: April 28, 2012, 11:48:20 AM »
Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline ah_clem

  • Moderator
  • Advanced Fibsboarder
  • *
  • Posts: 2,114
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #5 on: April 28, 2012, 05:09:46 PM »
Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline ah_clem

  • Moderator
  • Advanced Fibsboarder
  • *
  • Posts: 2,114
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #6 on: April 30, 2012, 10:20:47 PM »

rollout

Sorry but you are not allowed to view spoiler contents.

Offline ah_clem

  • Moderator
  • Advanced Fibsboarder
  • *
  • Posts: 2,114
Re: Game 2, move 14: Herd 3-2
« Reply #7 on: April 30, 2012, 10:44:30 PM »

Are those even jokers?  With our full board we might have more equity on the bar than where we are now. The racing chances would diminished but the chances of a shot would go up. Not sure what  the net effect would be...
 
I'll roll some of these hypotheticals out once they become moot.  Interesting questions.


gnu puts 22 as +0.118 luck and 11 as +.087 luck.  That's good, but far short of the .3 threshold for "lucky" or .6 for "very lucky".

(I haven't figured out how to get this number out of XG)

And in case anyone is wondering, hitting and closing the board is the right play for both rolls, it's just not as much of a game-changer as it might seem.

Tags: