Game 2, move 15: Herd 3-2

[diane]

It is still..shall we stay or shall we go?

[ah_clem]

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If gammons mattered at all, I'd say run.  But they don't so I'm staying put.   I doubt it matters much.

PS spoiler button doesn't seem to work in Firefox 12.

[diane]

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Oh yes they do....

[Julia_H]

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Same problem as before, we're still several moves from getting a shot, and all the time we stay our racing chances go down.

[ah_clem]

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Same problem as before, we're still several moves from getting a shot, and all the time we stay our racing chances go down.

Yep, we might be making the same mistake over and over - that's why I haven't rolled out any of the plays yet.  My hunch is that the equity difference is small, but it will be interesting to see which is the right idea.  Chances are we're going to be forced to run soon anyway.

[ah_clem]

rollout

(click to show/hide)

Now it's starting to cost us real equity.  Staying was correct two moves ago when we had the 64 to play.  It was a small error last move. Here it cost us .076 EMG.  That's not small,although it's not a blunder either.


XGID=-BCBBBC------------dcAbda-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    21/16                        eq:-0.751
      Player:   12.44% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 87.56% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.000 (-0.751..-0.751) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 15.1 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    6/1                          eq:-0.827 (-0.076)
      Player:   8.68% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 91.32% (G:0.38% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (-0.828..-0.826) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 15.4 seconds



¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2