Game 2, move 16: steifnu 2-1

[diane]

move?

[stiefnu]

With no immediately bad rolls, my best bet must surely be to simply bear two off.  2-off, 1-off.

[ah_clem]

rollout

(click to show/hide)

I'm not sure how hard stiefnu thought about hitting, but would have been a double whopper and swamped all our staying errors.  Was it worth it to stay in hopes of him making an error?  I doubt it.  But what's done is done.


XGID=-CCBBBB------------dcAbda-:0:0:-1:21:4:0:1:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    2/Off 1/Off                  eq:+0.739
      Player:   86.94% (G:0.08% B:0.00%)
      Opponent: 13.06% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.001 (+0.738..+0.739) - [100.0%]
      Duration: 3.8 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    6/4* 5/4                     eq:+0.521 (-0.218)
      Player:   75.89% (G:3.49% B:0.07%)
      Opponent: 24.11% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.002 (+0.519..+0.524) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 34.1 seconds




¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[stiefnu]

I'm not sure how hard stiefnu thought about hitting

Well, I considered it, of course, but leaving a shot against the Herd's closed board seemed a really, really bad idea.  So bad, in fact, that I was reluctant to even mention the possibility.