Poll

Move

13/9, 13/7
3 (30%)
9/5, 7/1
3 (30%)
7/3, 7/1
0 (0%)
7/1, 6/2
3 (30%)
9/3, 6/2
1 (10%)

Total Members Voted: 10

Voting closed: April 20, 2012, 10:53:14 AM

Author Topic: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4  (Read 1921 times)

Offline diane

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Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« on: April 17, 2012, 10:41:08 AM »
move?
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Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« on: April 17, 2012, 10:41:08 AM »

Offline Julia_H

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2012, 11:11:49 AM »
[spoiler]OK, so we can't run. I still don't want to let go of the mid, as it's stopping White's mid clearing nicely with any ace, and he's running out of other good aces as well as 10 doesn't clear either. I also don't want to stack up awkwardly and lose my board or capacity to build it quickly. I vote 7/1 6/2 and observe that lots of rolls make at worst a four-point board with one blot next time. Even if we get a shot next roll I think the blotty home board is better than the alternatives.[/spoiler]

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #1 on: April 17, 2012, 11:11:49 AM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #2 on: April 17, 2012, 01:41:32 PM »
[spoiler]

The most important next objcetive is to make the four point.  We don't want to play any checkers past the four until we have it made.  The midpoint isn't doing us a lot of good at this point so play off that.  We can't run our back checkers, if we play from the midpoint it would be foolish to volunteer a shot by leaving one behind, and every other play burries checkers.  13/7 13/9.
[/spoiler]

Offline diane

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 10:41:41 AM »
Well...it is all deadlocked...and I'm too tired to pick - so will extend the voting for you to argue a bit and pick something  ;)
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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #3 on: April 18, 2012, 10:41:41 AM »

Offline stog

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #4 on: April 18, 2012, 11:10:38 AM »
[spoiler]ok i have changed my vote from 9/3 6/2 to 7/1 6/2, as i too didn't want to abandon our outfield midpoint[/spoiler]

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #5 on: April 18, 2012, 11:49:03 AM »
And I forgot to vote, so now that I have it's deadlocked again.

Offline diane

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #6 on: April 18, 2012, 09:19:48 PM »
[spoiler]ok i have changed my vote from 9/3 6/2 to 7/1 6/2, as i too didn't want to abandon our outfield midpoint[/spoiler]

I also dont want to abandon that point - so if it is still deadlocked tonight, will go with the most popular choice that doesnt do that...
Never give up on the things that make you smile

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2012, 01:32:15 AM »
[spoiler]
My take is that if we play off the 9 and 7 points we'll be forced to abandon the midpoint in a roll or two anyway.   Might as well do it now and prevent premature burial.

The midpoint can be a great asset, but sometimes you have to let it go. 
[/spoiler]

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #7 on: April 19, 2012, 01:32:15 AM »

Offline verystripeyzebra

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #8 on: April 19, 2012, 10:58:49 AM »
i was more thinking of preserving 6s, so playing the 4 from the 6 point.

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #9 on: April 19, 2012, 08:49:58 PM »
If we're deadlocked at the close of voting, just pick one - I doubt there's more than a .04 error to be made among the three candidates.

Offline Julia_H

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #10 on: April 20, 2012, 11:01:19 AM »
Just a few minutes too late... but if you'll allow it I'll break the deadlock by changing from 7/1 6/2 to 7/1 9/5. I think the keep-the-midpoints have it, in any case.

Offline diane

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2012, 11:12:39 AM »
Just a few minutes too late... but if you'll allow it I'll break the deadlock by changing from 7/1 6/2 to 7/1 9/5. I think the keep-the-midpoints have it, in any case.


That is the move I picked - awesome  ;)
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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #11 on: April 20, 2012, 11:12:39 AM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 2, move 7: Herd 6-4
« Reply #12 on: April 20, 2012, 05:15:05 PM »
rollout

[spoiler]

I figured that the plays were close, but I didn't expect them to be this close.   A shaved monkey could make the right play here.


XGID=---BABCB-A--bB-b-ccd-B-a--:0:0:1:64:4:0:1:5:10


    1. XG Roller++ 13/9 13/7                    eq:-0.321
      Player:   34.06% (G:2.00% B:0.04%)
      Opponent: 65.94% (G:2.27% B:0.04%)

    2. XG Roller++ 9/5 7/1                      eq:-0.321
      Player:   34.08% (G:2.02% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 65.92% (G:2.61% B:0.07%)

    3. XG Roller++ 7/1 6/2                      eq:-0.322 (-0.001)
      Player:   34.08% (G:1.94% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 65.92% (G:2.76% B:0.10%)

    4. XG Roller++ 9/3 6/2                      eq:-0.323 (-0.002)
      Player:   34.01% (G:1.97% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 65.99% (G:2.63% B:0.06%)

    5. XG Roller++ 7/3 7/1                      eq:-0.328 (-0.007)
      Player:   33.75% (G:2.06% B:0.03%)
      Opponent: 66.25% (G:2.78% B:0.08%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2





[/spoiler]

 

anything