Game 1, move 1 : Herd 6-1

[diane]

move?

[ah_clem]

(click to show/hide)

We need to play the six off of the midpoint.  That point is badly overstacked, and unstacking it now is a priority.  The other two ways to play the six either expose the runner to a triple shot or uselessly slot the deuce point.

Then it's a question of where to play the one. Slotting and splitting is usually ill advised (see Magriel, chapter 17) so 24/23 is likely incorrect.   7/6 seems too passive, 6/5 seems too risky, and 3/2 accomplishes nothing.  That leaves 8/7 as the only remaining option.

13/7 8/7

[stiefnu]

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No board to worry about, so I too say split at the back and bring one down, unstacking the mid, with 24-23, 13-7.

[ah_clem]

rollout

(click to show/hide)

The Herd chooses correctly again.  I guess Magriel's admonishion against slotting and splitting doesn't apply here.



XGID=---Bb-D-B---cEb--c-e----B-:0:0:1:61:0:0:0:5:10


    1. Rollout¹    24/23 13/7                   eq:-0.251
      Player:   44.49% (G:11.25% B:0.72%)
      Opponent: 55.51% (G:15.98% B:0.77%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.265..-0.238) - [99.6%]
      Duration: 27 minutes 54 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/7 6/5                     eq:-0.279 (-0.027)
      Player:   43.66% (G:11.47% B:0.67%)
      Opponent: 56.34% (G:16.32% B:1.01%)
      Confidence: ±0.015 (-0.293..-0.264) - [0.4%]
      Duration: 29 minutes 18 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    24/23 24/18                  eq:-0.281 (-0.030)
      Player:   44.19% (G:9.32% B:0.41%)
      Opponent: 55.81% (G:16.10% B:0.59%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.293..-0.269) - [0.1%]
      Duration: 26 minutes 26 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    24/18 6/5                    eq:-0.297 (-0.046)
      Player:   44.59% (G:10.07% B:0.71%)
      Opponent: 55.41% (G:18.41% B:0.94%)
      Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.311..-0.283) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 27 minutes 52 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    13/7 8/7                     eq:-0.345 (-0.094)
      Player:   42.41% (G:9.98% B:0.48%)
      Opponent: 57.59% (G:16.07% B:0.75%)
      Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.359..-0.331) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 26 minutes 40 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2