Game 1, move 3 : Herd 5-1

[diane]

move?

[KDP]

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a lot of players will try to play safe or minimize shots with this crappy roll, and there are times when that might be correct but here i think the best way to approach the roll is to ask whats the best move if i dont get hit.  i think we need to move up 23-18 with the 5 to try and make the bar.  whats the best 1? i dont want to leave a 3rd blot so 23-22.

[stiefnu]

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Having spurned the chance to advance our anchor to Julia's 4-pt, we are now left with one on the 2-pt and I'm thinking we should hang on to that, for a while at least.  Splitting to the bar at this point seems like an invitation to be blitzed to death after she rolls 64, 62, 61, 42, 41, 21, 66, 22, 33, 21 or 11 and some of these are double shots too.  I could be wrong but I prefer 13-8, 6-5.  It seeks to make a point we want and, if hit, we have that anchor and a possible return shot.

[NIHILIST]

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We now need to make a move as bold as our last move was cowardly. 23-18, 23-22.

Bob

[stog]

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13/8 6/5 ---i like to slot the 5 with the 1 here, and bring up a builder with the 5, although i could go with the other suggestions, although i fear we may be in for a heavy pounding!

[ah_clem]

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If we play 23/18 then we are guaranteed to get hit there. Every roll hits except  55 and 53 and these point on the head of the blot on the 22.  23/18 23/22 just seems like a recipe for sitting on the bar.

I like 13/8 6/5 - unstack the six point and slot the 5.  Julia will have to break anchor to hit it, and I think the additional contact and volitility works in our favor.

13/7 is probably ok, but seems kinda passive.

13/8 23/22 puts a checker utg, for not much gain, so I don't think that's corrrect.

13/8 6/5 for me.

[ah_clem]

XG Roller's opinion

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XG analysis likes splitting to the 22, and does not like the Herd's move as much.

Rollout in progress, but I'm away for a long weekend, so I won't be able to post it til Tuesday.



XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10


    1. XG Roller+  23/22 23/18                  eq:-0.405
      Player:   42.61% (G:9.79% B:0.42%)
      Opponent: 57.39% (G:23.51% B:0.45%)

    2. XG Roller+  13/8 6/5                     eq:-0.443 (-0.039)
      Player:   39.08% (G:8.37% B:0.34%)
      Opponent: 60.92% (G:16.07% B:0.49%)

    3. 4-ply       23/18 6/5                    eq:-0.402 (+0.002)
      Player:   42.04% (G:10.47% B:0.56%)
      Opponent: 57.96% (G:24.35% B:0.95%)

    4. 4-ply       23/22 13/8                   eq:-0.408 (-0.003)
      Player:   41.43% (G:8.29% B:0.32%)
      Opponent: 58.57% (G:19.45% B:0.52%)

    5. 3-ply       13/7                         eq:-0.503 (-0.099)
      Player:   37.07% (G:7.66% B:0.25%)
      Opponent: 62.93% (G:15.25% B:0.49%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[ah_clem]

rollout

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XGID=---Bb-DBB---bCa-ac-cb--Ba-:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:5:10



    1. Rollout¹    23/22 23/18                  eq:-0.413
      Player:   42.49% (G:10.22% B:0.52%)
      Opponent: 57.51% (G:24.42% B:0.48%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.426..-0.401) - [99.9%]
      Duration: 15 minutes 40 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    23/18 6/5                    eq:-0.440 (-0.027)
      Player:   41.50% (G:10.52% B:0.66%)
      Opponent: 58.50% (G:25.03% B:0.82%)
      Confidence: ±0.012 (-0.453..-0.428) - [0.1%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    23/22 13/8                   eq:-0.471 (-0.058)
      Player:   41.14% (G:9.26% B:0.48%)
      Opponent: 58.86% (G:21.49% B:0.48%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.483..-0.458) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 16 minutes 48 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    13/8 6/5                     eq:-0.472 (-0.059)
      Player:   38.94% (G:9.06% B:0.48%)
      Opponent: 61.06% (G:16.75% B:0.61%)
      Confidence: ±0.013 (-0.485..-0.459) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 19 minutes 00 second

    5. Rollout¹    13/7                         eq:-0.567 (-0.153)
      Player:   36.68% (G:8.03% B:0.53%)
      Opponent: 63.32% (G:16.77% B:0.57%)
      Confidence: ±0.014 (-0.581..-0.553) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 17 minutes 54 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2