Game 1, move 9 : Herd Cube decision

[diane]

I have been asked by a reliable member of the Herd to pause to think about a cube..

What do you all think?

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

It doesn't have quite the same psychological effect as, over the board, slamming down a cube immediately after a lucky sequence... but I double. Race slightly to us as we're on roll, all our numbers do something worthwhile, quite a few big sequences (making the bar, switching points, or an exchange of hits which sends a second white man back).

[close]

I just popped a spoiler round that..as per instructions..to give people a chance to make their own minds up..then confer 

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

It is absolutely correct to pause for a cube decision here.  

But here I think the answer is roll.  We have a slight edge in position, race is even, and I think she has the edge in threats, although it's slight.  Gammons abound on both sides and maybe we win enough to make this a cube, but I see far too many sequences where it turns around and we get gammoned or have to eat a 4 cube.

OTOH, if we can leap out and she doesn't it's probably a cash.  There are lots of sequences where this happens, so we may lose our market.  I'm ok with that.

ND.

[close]

[diane]

oooh..a deadlock...come on folks..we need a tie breaker!

[Patti]

Go ahead, send it.  You guys don't have the cojones...

</trashtalk>

[ah_clem]

XGR++ 

Spoiler

The herd is pretty strong in this position, and only loses a few gammons, so the right play is to ship it.  Kudos to those who got it right.




XGID=-a-BBBC-CAA----b-b-cdAba--:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:5:10

Analyzed in XG Roller++
Player Winning Chances:   71.68% (G:10.09% B:0.34%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 28.32% (G:5.19% B:0.21%)

Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.480, Double=+0.967

Cubeful Equities:
       No double:     +0.658 (-0.119)
       Double/Take:   +0.777
       Double/Pass:   +1.000 (+0.223)

Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]