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Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3

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Move

7/3, 7/4
12/8, 6/3
6/2, 4/1

Author Topic: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3  (Read 830 times)

Offline diane

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Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« on: May 05, 2013, 03:23:09 AM »
move?
Never give up on the things that make you smile

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Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« on: May 05, 2013, 03:23:09 AM »

Offline KDP

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2013, 12:16:53 PM »
[spoiler]if we had correctly played the double ones we could have just connected our last 2 checkers and prepared for the bear off but thats water under the bridge now. sigh. for this roll  7-4 7-3. we cannot afford to leave a shot by moving off the 12, and shuffling checkers around past his 2 guys is a blunder.  clearing the 7 is something we will have to do at some point so it might as well be now. [/spoiler]

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #1 on: May 05, 2013, 12:16:53 PM »

Offline NIHILIST

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #2 on: May 05, 2013, 03:03:44 PM »
[spoiler]Spoken like a true results player. If we'd only rolled 5-5 we could clear our 12 point and cruise home, but that's water under the bridge too. Instead of chopping up our landing spots out of fear of leaving a 6 number shot, why not come off the 12 point now; 12-8, 6-3.[/spoiler]

Bob
Robert J Ebbeler

Offline NIHILIST

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2013, 07:04:49 PM »
[spoiler]  
Quote
shuffling checkers around past his 2 guys is a blunder
Why is it a blunder ? With the roll we're up 14 pips, there's a case to be made for keeping the outer board landing spots intact and just quietly winning the race, so 6-2, 4-1 wouldn't be the worst play available to us.[/spoiler]


Bob
« Last Edit: May 05, 2013, 09:58:16 PM by Zorba »
Robert J Ebbeler

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #3 on: May 05, 2013, 07:04:49 PM »

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2013, 01:41:25 AM »
[spoiler]

I guess I messed the vote - too busy racing sailboats on this beautiful spring day to hang around on the internet - but I would have cleared the 12 point.   1/6 chance to be hit (~18%) and almost 100% to win the race when we're not hit.

Don't volunteer a direct shot in a holding game, but those indirect shots are sometimes worth volunteering.

Looking forward to rolling out the recent moves... soon come, mon.

[/spoiler]

Offline ah_clem

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Re: Game 4, move 11 : Herd 4-3
« Reply #5 on: May 10, 2013, 05:25:14 PM »
XGR++

[spoiler]
This one is not close.  Don't volunteer a shot in a holding game, even if it's an indirect shot.

Congrats to the Herd for choosing the best play again.



XGID=-BB-BbCBB---B-----abcbbba-:0:0:1:43:3:1:0:5:3

X:Herd   O:Linus
Score is X:3 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
 +13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
 |                O |   | O  O  O  O  O  O |
 |                  |   | O  O  O  O  O    |
 |                  |   |    O             |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |BAR|                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   |                  |
 |                  |   | X                |
 | X           X  X |   | X  O  X     X  X |
 | X           X  X |   | X  O  X     X  X |
 +12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 86  O: 93 X-O: 3-1/5
Cube: 1
X to play 43

    1. XG Roller++ 7/4 7/3                      eq:+0.453
      Player:   65.81% (G:1.82% B:0.02%)
      Opponent: 34.19% (G:1.49% B:0.02%)

    2. XG Roller++ 12/8 6/3                     eq:+0.295 (-0.158)
      Player:   60.00% (G:2.92% B:0.11%)
      Opponent: 40.00% (G:4.14% B:0.06%)

    3. XG Roller++ 6/2 4/1                      eq:+0.269 (-0.183)
      Player:   59.23% (G:0.80% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 40.77% (G:1.39% B:0.02%)

    4. XG Roller++ 12/8 4/1                     eq:+0.200 (-0.253)
      Player:   56.73% (G:1.94% B:0.06%)
      Opponent: 43.27% (G:3.76% B:0.04%)

    5. 1-ply       12/9 12/8                    eq:-0.002 (-0.455)
      Player:   53.30% (G:2.38% B:0.01%)
      Opponent: 46.70% (G:4.43% B:0.02%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2


[/spoiler]

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