Game 4, move 38 Blitzxz and 39 Forum : Forum 6-3

[diane]

Blitzxz rolled 3-1 and entered one checker from the bar, hitting the Forum pip.

Forum rolled 6-3 and has a choice of entry points 

H98BAFC27QAITA:QQmvACAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We'd like to bring another checker around to bear on the ace point and bar/22 17/11 does that best.  But it leaves a 1-1 joker for blitzy, and I see no advantage to having a blot on the 22.

Playing off the 6 or leaving the anchor is sub-optimal.

bar/19 17/14 creeps a checker closer without leaving a blot exposed.  bar/16 is probably fairly close, but I'll take the play that moves the reinforcement closer bar/19 17/14

[close]

[diane]

I have reopened this to see if we can get away from the 3-3 tie...

Spoiler

I chose the first option, to try and get another checker as close into range as possible..if forum needs to hit, or to block the exit - a checker close by would be advantageous.  Any one want to change a vote to get us to a decision, or a new person vote maybe - if it isnt decided by the time I get home, I will flip a coin, and it might fall on my side 

[close]

[anchordraw]

I voted for putting the 6 on 19, and creeping the other checker.  I wouldn't leave the lone checker very long on the 22 anyway, so get it out now, when I can move to 19.

[dorbel]

Might as well flip a coin, you cant separate these without a rollout.

[ah_clem]

Might as well flip a coin, you cant separate these without a rollout.

Even with a rollout, you can't separate them...

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          bar/16                       Eq.:  +1.317
       0.909 0.363 0.012 - 0.091 0.017 0.001 CL  +1.230 CF  +1.317
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.005]

    2. Rollout          bar/19 17/14                 Eq.:  +1.315 ( -0.002)
       0.908 0.361 0.013 - 0.092 0.018 0.001 CL  +1.231 CF  +1.315
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.007]

    3. Rollout          bar/22 17/11                 Eq.:  +1.311 ( -0.005)
       0.904 0.363 0.012 - 0.096 0.019 0.000 CL  +1.223 CF  +1.311
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    4. Rollout          bar/19 6/3                   Eq.:  +1.307 ( -0.009)
       0.905 0.355 0.014 - 0.095 0.020 0.001 CL  +1.218 CF  +1.307
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]

    5. Rollout          bar/22 23/17                 Eq.:  +1.291 ( -0.025)
       0.898 0.347 0.012 - 0.102 0.022 0.000 CL  +1.189 CF  +1.291
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.005 CF   0.006]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 848583725 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[diane]

I am surprised Bar/16 did so well!