Game 4 Move 7 Forum 31

[roadkillbooks]

blitzxz rolled a 6-1 off the bar bring in one piece and anchoring on the ace point.  Forum now has a 3-1 to play.

[diane]

Spoiler

I am not sure it is right, but my instinct here is to deblot as far as possible, so I chose the option to make two points in his home...but it does still leave two blots loose out there...

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

What I'd like to do here is bring another builder into range. But we can't with this roll.

I think I want to leave the blot on the 8 where it is. 

So, we can move the blot on the 15 around into our outfield, or we can shuffle our four backmen.  While making an advanced anchor (or two) looks pretty, I'm not too concerned with those blots being hit and 15/11 puts some pressure on his runners by threatening to strengthen the blockade.  While we have the initiative we should keep moving forward, even though a 3-1 doesn't allow us to move forward very much.

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[roadkillbooks]

Spoiler

with 2 high inner board points playing 23/20, 22/11 we dont have to worry about any other blots as they will be quickly recirculated if hit.  I think we control the board with that play.  If we are hit we dont care and if we're not we are on good shape as well

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

very tough play and typical of the sort of problem that you face when your forces are divided. I think making the two anchors is right. We don't intend to keep them for long but they will create a lot of problems for the opponent if he enters soon and if he hits something we should be able to recycle easily. If he keeps dancing we can feed men into the outfield where they can do some good. Tough play though, could easily be wrong here.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Making the golden point is correct here, and what we do with the other half of the roll is not so important.  Several moves are within the margin of error or close to it.  Note that making the second point is not much of a factor.

My choice, 15/11, is a .05 error.

I can only surmise that the positional strength of owning the golden point outweighs other considerations, and the weak improvement of 15/11 from a builder/blitz standpoint is not enough to favor that idea. 



    1. Rollout          23/20 22/21                  Eq.:  +0.362
       0.589 0.183 0.044 - 0.411 0.113 0.013 CL  +0.456 CF  +0.362
      [0.002 0.003 0.004 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.008 CF   0.009]

    2. Rollout          23/20 15/14                  Eq.:  +0.352 ( -0.010)
       0.582 0.192 0.043 - 0.418 0.132 0.013 CL  +0.446 CF  +0.352
      [0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.004 0.002 CL   0.009 CF   0.010]

    3. Rollout          23/20 21/20                  Eq.:  +0.351 ( -0.012)
       0.580 0.195 0.050 - 0.420 0.125 0.013 CL  +0.440 CF  +0.351
      [0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL   0.009 CF   0.009]

    4. Rollout          21/20 8/5                    Eq.:  +0.345 ( -0.017)
       0.580 0.188 0.035 - 0.420 0.123 0.013 CL  +0.435 CF  +0.345
      [0.002 0.003 0.003 - 0.002 0.003 0.002 CL   0.010 CF   0.009]

    5. Rollout          23/20 3/2                    Eq.:  +0.317 ( -0.045)
       0.568 0.191 0.049 - 0.432 0.131 0.017 CL  +0.418 CF  +0.317
      [0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.009 CF   0.010]

    6. Rollout          15/11                        Eq.:  +0.314 ( -0.048)
       0.569 0.193 0.045 - 0.431 0.145 0.029 CL  +0.410 CF  +0.314
      [0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.010 CF   0.010]

    7. Rollout          22/21 8/5                    Eq.:  +0.311 ( -0.052)
       0.568 0.189 0.043 - 0.432 0.133 0.019 CL  +0.405 CF  +0.311
      [0.003 0.003 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.003 CL   0.009 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 845045210 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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