Poll
I have no idea whether this is a double or not. And every time I try to think about it I'm reminded of the GWC from the rollout two moves before - which don't tell me the answer, but are enough of a factor in my decision process that I'm just going to have to recuse myself from this cube decision. So y'all are on your own for this one.
rollout
Holding the cube here is a whopper.
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.669
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.331)
3. No double +0.564 ( -0.105)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.614 0.259 0.003 - 0.386 0.085 0.005 CL +0.406 CF +0.564
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.011]
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
0.617 0.257 0.003 - 0.383 0.103 0.009 CL +0.991 CF +0.669
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL 0.013 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Question: Cube?
Option 1: Double
votes: 3
Option 2: Play on
votes: 4
Title: Herd: cube decision
Post by: diane on March 28, 2011, 11:14:48 AM
Post by: diane on March 28, 2011, 11:14:48 AM
Position ID: hs8HA0BtM8QABw
Match ID: cAmgABAAAAAA
Gaspar danced again with 6-2, our roll...
I do think a cube is lurking..if not now, sometime soon. I therefore thought I would ask again.
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/herd-cube-decision-3951/?action=dlattach;attach=5876;image)
Match ID: cAmgABAAAAAA
Gaspar danced again with 6-2, our roll...
I do think a cube is lurking..if not now, sometime soon. I therefore thought I would ask again.
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-9/herd-cube-decision-3951/?action=dlattach;attach=5876;image)
Title: Re: Herd: cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on March 28, 2011, 05:23:19 PM
Post by: ah_clem on March 28, 2011, 05:23:19 PM
Spoiler
I have no idea whether this is a double or not. And every time I try to think about it I'm reminded of the GWC from the rollout two moves before - which don't tell me the answer, but are enough of a factor in my decision process that I'm just going to have to recuse myself from this cube decision. So y'all are on your own for this one.
[close]
Title: Re: Herd: cube decision
Post by: stog on March 28, 2011, 08:39:40 PM
Post by: stog on March 28, 2011, 08:39:40 PM
Spoiler
why did i vote no to the cube? is it because it could become too good, or is it because it could turn horrible. numerically are we ahead?, positionally maybe. would i take ? yes i would, and the game is too early, not to expect that cube to come flying back. i vote to wait
[close]
Title: Re: Herd: cube decision
Post by: socksey on March 28, 2011, 09:04:50 PM
Post by: socksey on March 28, 2011, 09:04:50 PM
Spoiler
I agree with stog on no cube for the same reasons. While I was thinking how to say it, stog said it for me and very well. :yes:
[close]
Title: Re: Herd: cube decision
Post by: ah_clem on April 24, 2011, 03:05:47 PM
Post by: ah_clem on April 24, 2011, 03:05:47 PM
rollout
Spoiler
Holding the cube here is a whopper.
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take +0.669
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.331)
3. No double +0.564 ( -0.105)
Proper cube action: Double, take
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.614 0.259 0.003 - 0.386 0.085 0.005 CL +0.406 CF +0.564
[0.001 0.002 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL 0.004 CF 0.011]
Player Gaspar owns 2-cube:
0.617 0.257 0.003 - 0.383 0.103 0.009 CL +0.991 CF +0.669
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.004 0.002 CL 0.013 CF 0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 882573024 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]