Match 1, Game 1, Move 7, Forum checker

[blitzxz]

5-1?

[playBunny]

Spoiler

There are only two choices for me.

I like 16/11 6/5* but the number of return hits (47% of rolls) gives me caution. There are four double-taps (5-2, 5-6) plus 5-5 which would be particularly unpleasant triple hit. Then there are 12 obvious single hits and some possibles (depending on the opponent's desire for a blotfest, eg. hitting loose on the ace point with a 6, or going to the wall, 3/1*(2), with a 2-2).

I voted for the unaggressive move, 17/16 8/3, commandeering our opponent's 9 point and slotting our home behind his blot. It's risk-free but it relies on the hope that there's enough awkwardness in his position that he'll present a shot.

[close]

[NIHILIST]

17-16, 8-3. I don't think you want to engage in a hitting contest here, especially with several blots that don't communicate very well. I would consolidate my position here knowing that I'm going to be in the game for a long time and there's not much opponent can do to hurt me with his next roll.

Bob

[Tomawaky]

Spoiler

yes,  17-16, 8-3 also to consolidate and some other chances to hit next turn as opponent position is not really good. I considered also 6/5* but I am not sure it gain much against what we can lose on it.

[close]

[lewscannon]

I agree with Nihi. Not a very good roll to do anything with here. Who was that idiot that wanted to cube before this roll? I'm glad we didn't listen to him!

[diane]

I dont know, possibly the same one who wants to hit too, just cos everything else seems too slow   

[playBunny]

Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply

Spoiler

# .. Move ............ Equity .. (Diff) .... Win ...... WinG ... WinBg ---- Lose .... LoseG .... LoseBg
1 .. 16/11 6/5* ... -0.160 ................ 45.3% .. 16.7% ... 0.6% --- 54.7% .. 20.6% ... 1.8%
2 .. 17/16 8/3 ..... -0.174 (-0.014) ... 45.4% .. 13.8% ... 0.3% --- 54.6% .. 15.0% ... 0.7%
Std Err ................ 0.009 .................. 0.1% .... 0.2% ... 0.1% ---- 0.1% .... 0.2% ... 0.1%

Given the size of the potential error, there's nothing in it.

[close]

[diane]

Oooh, does that mean I wasn't very wrong to want to hit  [and incidentally, I notice that I didn't agree with Lews here....  ]

[blitzxz]

I voted for hit also. You never has to ask twice from me to get in endless hitting battle (in backgammon I mean).