Match 1, Game 3, Move 8, Forum

[Zorba]

But you can only move what the dice give you, therefore it's an easy best option.

Not sure if I follow you here. I voted for 6/1, which does not leave a shot at all. That's a lot less risk than this 28%. So I disagree strongly that there's an easy best option. The downside from 6/1 is that the "gain" from never getting hit is also much lower, as it leaves a more awkward position than after 11/6.

playBunny's rollout has a too high error margin to tell which play is best, but it's enough to tell that both plays are close. I'm running a longer one at higher settings but that takes days to complete. To be continued.

BTW, have we all donated to blitzxz already? 

[lewscannon]

Not sure if I follow you here. I voted for 6/1, which does not leave a shot at all. That's a lot less risk than this 28%. So I disagree strongly that there's an easy best option. The downside from 6/1 is that the "gain" from never getting hit is also much lower, as it leaves a more awkward position than after 11/6.

playBunny's rollout has a too high error margin to tell which play is best, but it's enough to tell that both plays are close. I'm running a longer one at higher settings but that takes days to complete. To be continued.

BTW, have we all donated to blitzxz already? 

Scuse me Zorba, my bad. I thought your vote was to bring down one of the outfield pieces. The 6-1 doesn't do much for me either.

[Zorba]

Ah got it, np! All makes more sense now 

[Zorba]

Full 2-ply rollout:

Spoiler

The plays are very close, and given the standard errors it's too close to call which is best. The 6/1 play wins some more games, but it also loses more gammons.

The equities also point out that we have a small take, this time with good statistical significance: dropping would technically be a 0.0275 error after the 11/6 play.


        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        2592 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 857820087 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0,12
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

    1. Rollout          bar/24 11/6                  Eq.:  -0,9725
        39,81  17,32   1,75 -  60,19  17,41   3,16 CL  -0,3193 CF  -0,9725
      [  0,15   0,42   0,18 -   0,15   0,18   0,26 CL   0,0032 CF   0,0070]
    2. Rollout          bar/24 6/1                   Eq.:  -0,9768 ( -0,0043)
        40,27  18,95   1,42 -  59,73  19,09   3,06 CL  -0,3213 CF  -0,9768
      [  0,15   0,43   0,17 -   0,15   0,18   0,23 CL   0,0034 CF   0,0075]

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