Match 1, Game 3, Move 10, Forum

[blitzxz]

4-1?

Score:
Green(forum) 2, White 0, match to 5

Pips:
Green 140 White 159

GnuID:
sN3ggAUcz8gMIA:UgmmAAAAEAAA

[blitzxz]

Spoiler

I vote still for supersafe like before the cube. Any hit is a big looser which we can't afford. Let's hope for miracle and give no free shots.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

Again, I don't like the supersafe, because it leaves those two back points with nowhere to go - kinda out on a limb.  I would rather start them moving and get ready to try and do something to make it hard for fact to get safely out. If we can pin him down there a while, it might make it easier to later move that back checker. I could see no value in moving the very back checker 1, so chose to move the one I have split.  6-2, 3-2 was nice in that it made a home board point, but awful in the number of hits it left on that lonesome target.  Consequently I went for 15-11, 15,14.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

We need to deal with the blot on the 11.  11/6 looks safe, but leaves us with an inflexible position - what are we going to move next turn?

11/7 8/7 is much worse, leaving a double direct shot instead of a direct plus indirect shot.

15/11 15/14 leaves only a single shot, makes a point 6 points away from the anchor, and begins clearing the not-very-useful 15 point.  That looks best.

Making the two point would be a good idea, but we need to deal with the outfield blots now, 

The runner should stay put until he can move to a point where a 6 escapes.

So, 15/11 15/14.

[close]

[ah_clem]

0 ply gnubg rollout

Spoiler

    1. Rollout          11/6                         MWC:  51.04%
       0.404 0.108 0.003 - 0.596 0.175 0.006 CL  51.04% CF  51.04%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.09% CF   0.09%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    2. Rollout          6/2 3/2                      MWC:  49.51% ( -1.53%)
       0.388 0.120 0.004 - 0.612 0.187 0.008 CL  49.51% CF  49.51%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    3. Rollout          11/7 3/2                     MWC:  47.51% ( -3.53%)
       0.364 0.099 0.003 - 0.636 0.196 0.008 CL  47.51% CF  47.51%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    4. Rollout          11/7 8/7                     MWC:  47.14% ( -3.89%)
       0.358 0.091 0.003 - 0.642 0.192 0.008 CL  47.14% CF  47.14%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    5. Rollout          24/23 11/7                   MWC:  46.94% ( -4.10%)
       0.358 0.094 0.003 - 0.642 0.200 0.008 CL  46.94% CF  46.94%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    6. Rollout          15/14 15/11                  MWC:  46.19% ( -4.84%)
       0.345 0.090 0.003 - 0.655 0.190 0.008 CL  46.19% CF  46.19%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    7. Rollout          15/11 3/2                    MWC:  46.19% ( -4.85%)
       0.346 0.097 0.003 - 0.654 0.193 0.008 CL  46.19% CF  46.19%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.09% CF   0.09%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
    8. Rollout          24/23 15/11                  MWC:  46.02% ( -5.02%)
       0.344 0.090 0.003 - 0.656 0.194 0.007 CL  46.02% CF  46.02%
      [0.001 0.001 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.08% CF   0.08%]
        Truncated cubeful rollout (depth 11) with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859267361 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[playBunny]

 
Rollout 1296 trials, 2-ply for 12 plies, 0-ply thereafter, 2-ply cube throughout

Spoiler

# .. Move .......... Equity . (Diff) ... Win .... WinG ... WinBg -- Lose ... LoseG . LoseBg
1 .. 11/6 .......... -0.303 ............ 40.3% .. 18.0% ... 0.9% -- 59.7% .. 16.5% ... 2.7%
2 .. 6/2 3/2 ....... -0.326 (-0.024) ... 39.5% .. 19.0% ... 2.0% -- 60.5% .. 17.6% ... 2.7%
3 .. 11/7 3/2 ...... -0.387 (-0.084) ... 37.1% .. 14.5% ... 1.4% -- 62.9% .. 19.4% ... 2.9%
4 .. 11/7 8/7 ...... -0.402 (-0.099) ... 36.0% .. 13.7% ... 0.9% -- 64.0% .. 18.5% ... 2.7%
5 .. 24/23 11/7 .... -0.407 (-0.104) ... 35.9% .. 14.5% ... 0.9% -- 64.1% .. 18.9% ... 2.8%
6 .. 15/11 3/2 ..... -0.419 (-0.116) ... 35.0% .. 13.9% ... 1.8% -- 65.0% .. 17.9% ... 2.6%
7 .. 15/14 15/11 ... -0.426 (-0.123) ... 34.6% .. 14.7% ... 0.8% -- 65.4% .. 17.9% ... 2.4%
8 .. 24/23 15/11 ... -0.427 (-0.124) ... 34.7% .. 14.4% ... 0.9% -- 65.3% .. 18.2% ... 2.1%
9 .. 24/23 6/2 ..... -0.427 (-0.124) ... 35.5% .. 14.3% ... 1.2% -- 64.5% .. 20.7% ... 2.8%
10 .. 6/1 .......... -0.437 (-0.134) ... 35.1% .. 16.0% ... 1.1% -- 64.9% .. 20.9% ... 3.7%
11 .. 11/10 6/2 .... -0.455 (-0.152) ... 34.2% .. 13.2% ... 1.0% -- 65.8% .. 21.0% ... 3.7%
Std Err ............. 0.004 ............. 0.2% ... 0.6% ... 0.2% --- 0.2% ... 0.2% ... 0.3%

        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 859772197 and quasi-random dice
        Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        Different evaluations after 12 plies:
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]