Game 6, move 8 : Herd 4-2

[diane]

Ok..what to do with this one..

[KDP]

Spoiler

i would play 16-10 of the 2 pts we have to clear the checkers on the 16 are the most difficult.  playing 16-10 gets one of the 2 checkers to safety and while it leaves a blot i would rather leave it now as our opponents board is very likely to improve the next roll or two.  if we are not hit we have a very good chance to  bring the rest of our men home and get the win.  13-11 13-9 leaves 3 blots !?! and we still have to clear the 16 point.

[close]

[Julia_H]

Spoiler

The White home board may grow stronger in the short term, but give it a couple of rolls and one of three things will happen - the board will break, reducing the risk when hit, the midpoint will break, releasing us from the holding game, or a man runs from behind the prime, giving us a chance to put him back and clear the 16-point with the cover of a man on the bar. And that's assuming we don't get a double or other clearing roll (35, 36, 56) in the meantime. There's no reason at all to provoke a crisis this move; I prefer 10/4 but will vote tactically for 13/9 13/11 if necessary.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

While I thought about 16/10 (when it works, it works really well), the old saw 'don't volunteer a shot in a holding game' was playing in my head, so I opted for the chicken play 10/4.

13/11 13/9 leaves a triple indirect shot with 9 shakes that hit in exchange for nothing that I can see.  If gammons counted we might want to try to make the bar point, but with our racing lead and 3 checkers stuck behind a five prime I don't see the value.

10/4

[close]

[KDP]

ask yourself if nealkaz, mochy or stick would make the chicken play then look at everything again.  im curious to what a rollout shows.

[diane]

Me too, I hate the 10/4 play, and would rather do almost anything else...

[ah_clem]

I don't like the chicken play either, but it seems to be the least bad option at our disposal.

Time is on our side, so a little bit of stalling should pay off in the long run.

I'm going to wait a bit on the rollout, because we may have a very similar decision next turn and I don't want to tip off what the right answer is.  Once he clears his midpoint, or the overall structure of the position changes I'll roll it out.

[ah_clem]

Now that we've cleared the 16 point, posting a rollout shouldn't give anything away for future moves.

Spoiler

The right idea here is to clear the 16 while Linus's board is weak.  When it works, it works really well.

The chicken play is not a blunder, but it's not the best move either.

BTW, it appears that match score is not a factor - 16/10 wins more games, wins more gammons, and loses fewer gammons.



XGID=-cBBBBB---A-bB--Bc-cb-b---:0:0:1:42:4:2:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:2 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X        X  O    |   | O  O     O       |
| X        X  O    |   | O  O     O       |
|             O    |   | O                |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                O |
| O                |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
| O     X          |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 108  O: 156 X-O: 4-2/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 42

    1. XG Roller++ 16/10                        eq:+0.562
      Player:   78.30% (G:37.30% B:5.00%)
      Opponent: 21.70% (G:2.53% B:0.12%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/11 13/9                   eq:+0.546 (-0.017)
      Player:   77.51% (G:32.96% B:3.58%)
      Opponent: 22.49% (G:3.09% B:0.14%)

    3. XG Roller++ 10/4                         eq:+0.531 (-0.032)
      Player:   76.70% (G:32.59% B:3.78%)
      Opponent: 23.30% (G:2.68% B:0.10%)

    4. XG Roller++ 13/9 10/8                    eq:+0.520 (-0.043)
      Player:   76.27% (G:34.78% B:4.39%)
      Opponent: 23.73% (G:3.90% B:0.20%)

    5. XG Roller++ 13/11 10/6                   eq:+0.509 (-0.054)
      Player:   75.66% (G:35.72% B:4.71%)
      Opponent: 24.34% (G:3.30% B:0.14%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[KDP]

i refuse to say i told you so.