Poll
Question: take? 
Option 1: Take
votes: 3
Option 2: pass
votes: 2
Title: Game 1, move 5 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: diane on June 03, 2012, 09:47:52 PM
Post by: diane on June 03, 2012, 09:47:52 PM
I think I know at least one answer...how about the rest of the Herd?
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: stog on June 03, 2012, 11:02:41 PM
Post by: stog on June 03, 2012, 11:02:41 PM
Spoiler
the night is young -- plenty of play left -- it's early doors, we got an anchor --> take
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: KDP on June 03, 2012, 11:05:40 PM
Post by: KDP on June 03, 2012, 11:05:40 PM
Spoiler
take
[close]
Title: Re: Game 1, move 5 : Herd Cube Decision
Post by: ah_clem on June 05, 2012, 04:28:59 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 05, 2012, 04:28:59 PM
rollout
Although XG says it is a small error to double, this seems to me to be a very good practical double. For one thing, passing would be a HUGE error, but some players will pass this one. I'd gladly eat the .014 theoretical equity loss in exchange for a pass here. For another, when you hold a close decision you can make the same mistake over and over again; you can only make an wrong double error once. So if you're trying to lower your overall PR, doubling when you're not quite sure you're at the DP can be effective.
So, good double. MASSIVE error to pass and I'm glad the herd was able to make the correct decision. (I was away over the weekend and missed the action, so I can't take any credit for this.)
XGID=---BbBCBC---aAa-abbcb--Ba-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.91% (G:15.89% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.09% (G:7.31% B:0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.23% (G:16.25% B:0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.77% (G:7.53% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.419, Double=+0.883
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.683
Double/Take: +0.670 (-0.014)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.317)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.9%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.670..+0.697)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.652..+0.687)
Double Decision confidence: 88.7%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
Spoiler
Although XG says it is a small error to double, this seems to me to be a very good practical double. For one thing, passing would be a HUGE error, but some players will pass this one. I'd gladly eat the .014 theoretical equity loss in exchange for a pass here. For another, when you hold a close decision you can make the same mistake over and over again; you can only make an wrong double error once. So if you're trying to lower your overall PR, doubling when you're not quite sure you're at the DP can be effective.
So, good double. MASSIVE error to pass and I'm glad the herd was able to make the correct decision. (I was away over the weekend and missed the action, so I can't take any credit for this.)
XGID=---BbBCBC---aAa-abbcb--Ba-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:0:5:10
Analyzed in Rollout
No double
Player Winning Chances: 66.91% (G:15.89% B:0.60%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.09% (G:7.31% B:0.39%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.23% (G:16.25% B:0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.77% (G:7.53% B:0.42%)
Cubeless Equities: No Double=+0.419, Double=+0.883
Cubeful Equities:
No double: +0.683
Double/Take: +0.670 (-0.014)
Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.317)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 3.9%
Rollout:
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Confidence No Double: ± 0.013 (+0.670..+0.697)
Confidence Double: ± 0.018 (+0.652..+0.687)
Double Decision confidence: 88.7%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 23 minutes 44 seconds
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2
[close]