Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 36 Herd to play

[stog]

elmicho danced with a 2 5

we also rolled a 2 5

pls add other options as required thx-- rushing outttt......

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'd take the opportunity to clear the 7 point.  It leaves zero shots, and with spares on the 6 and 5 we probably won't be forced to leave a direct shot for several rolls.

66 will be an anti joker, but other than that it looks quite flexible. 

Remember that we're not trying for a gammon, and his board is in such a state that we don't need to trap him so that his board crunches.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Clearing the bar point is a nice idea, but loses a small amount of equity.


XGID=abBBBBCB--AA-----e--b--ad-:0:0:1:52:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|             O    |   |    O        O  O |
|             O    |   |    O           O |
|             O    |   |                O |
|             O    |   |                O |
|             O    |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  | O |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   | X                |
|                X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
|    X  X        X |   | X  X  X  X  X  O |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 81  O: 129 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 52

    1. Rollout¹    11/9 10/5                    eq:+0.847
      Player:   92.36% (G:51.74% B:17.03%)
      Opponent: 7.64% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.844..+0.851) - [50.5%]
      Duration: 1 minute 15 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    10/5 6/4                     eq:+0.847
      Player:   92.35% (G:51.53% B:17.43%)
      Opponent: 7.65% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.844..+0.850) - [49.0%]
      Duration: 1 minute 09 seconds

    3. Rollout¹    10/5 7/5                     eq:+0.842 (-0.005)
      Player:   92.10% (G:52.61% B:17.62%)
      Opponent: 7.90% (G:0.02% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.003 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.3%]
      Duration: 47.5 seconds

    4. Rollout¹    11/6 7/5                     eq:+0.841 (-0.006)
      Player:   92.06% (G:52.77% B:18.14%)
      Opponent: 7.94% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.838..+0.845) - [0.2%]
      Duration: 1 minute 05 seconds

    5. Rollout¹    7/5 7/2                      eq:+0.832 (-0.015)
      Player:   91.59% (G:52.69% B:18.46%)
      Opponent: 8.41% (G:0.01% B:0.00%)
      Confidence: ±0.004 (+0.828..+0.835) - [0.0%]
      Duration: 50.0 seconds


¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

[close]

[Zorba]

Spoiler

Small differences, but I'm guessing the reason that 7/5 7/2 is not the best play (I also thought it was), is the 7/2 part. It puts a spare on our deepest point when we might be able to avoid that altogether. This line of thought seems to be supported by the fact that several other 7/5 moves are among the top choices, even when they leave el_micho the 1-6 shot.

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