Uhm, I hope I didn't do anything bad with the dice generator, but another 3-1 popped out, this time for dorbel! dorbel , I hope you're comfortable with playing this way. (If I swap the board, the colours for the players swap too it seems, so that might be very confusing).
readers moved 24/21 making the anchor, 11/10 moving the builder. dorbel rolls 3-1
XGID=-a---BC-C-A-fD---b-dbB----:0:0:-1:31:0:0:0:5:10
Tough play! Moving up to the 21pt doesn't appeal. The risk is great, the gain is small. Dumping a checker behind the anchor can't be right either, safety for another roll but no gain. This play has to come from the obese midpoint and I like 13/10, 6/5. It duplicates all the good sixes that the team has on the other side of the board, slots a useful blocking point and splits the spares on the 6pt. That's quite a lot of work for one ordinary small roll. 13/9 is one fewer shot of course, but doesn't duplicate anything and doesn't diversify the builders, so it has to be second best.
Any herd members like to comment on dorbel's play? By far the most interesting of the match so far! Unfortunately I know the bot's verdict already so can't comment. I will post it later.
And I chatted with him in shouts about it.
well, let me take a shot at it .. i like moving up the straggler with 24/21 and then 6/5 to take care of the one which dorbel originally dismissed
while the 24/21 increases the chances of being hit and covered at the 21 point, it also sets up a possible escape .. coming down with the 13/10 risks getting hit and yielding two stragglers - perhaps two dancing on the bar .. since escape, not blocking, is the early theme in this game, it seems sensible to advance that theme
If you've been reading his blog (http://dorbeldaily.blogspot.com/ (http://dorbeldaily.blogspot.com/)), the play would be utterly unsurprising. He's been on about stacks and how any stack should have a big red flag on it saying "unstack me!" Here he has a stack of 6 on the 13 and a stack of 4 on the six. The flags would tell you to play 13/10 6/5.
But, of course, the flags are not always right. Is there something better to do?
Moving the back man up in preparation to escape is a worthy objecitive, but it places it UTG - that's Migriel's TLA for "under the gun" or three or more builders aimed at the blot. With an advanced anchor we'll probably hit loose with any 2, 4, 6, or 9. That's a lot of shots, and almost 25% of the rolls point on his head. Moving the runner up is a recipe for being hit.
Playing behind our anchor is weak and passive.
13/10 only unstacks one point rather than two. It leaves one fewer roll to hit as Dorbel noted, but it's worth giving that up to get spares on both the 5 and 6.
Seeing nothing better, salute the flags! Unstack by playing off both candlesticks. It's what Dorbel would do.
Snowie will play 24/21, 6/5 and the rollout seems to confirm that. 13/10 is an error. It seems that getting into the escape hatch is worth the risk of being attacked after all. Oh well! Tough play as I said at the time.
XG rollout:
Spoiler
1. Rollout¹ 24/21 6/5 eq:-0,251
Player : 45,36% (G:7,62% B:0,42%)
Opponent: 54,64% (G:15,52% B:0,50%)
Confidence: ± 0,010 (-0,261<E<-0,241)
Duration: 25 minutes 04 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 13/10 6/5 eq:-0,323 (-0,072)
Player : 42,42% (G:7,86% B:0,43%)
Opponent: 57,58% (G:13,71% B:0,55%)
Confidence: ± 0,010 (-0,333<E<-0,313)
Duration: 25 minutes 28 seconds
¹ 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 1 ply, cube decisions: 3 ply Red
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.14, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross