Game 3, move 13: Roderick 2-1

[diane]

The herd rolled 6-4 and danced...Roderick is back up

[NIHILIST]

Did Rod have the opportunity to cube after we fanned ?

Bob

[diane]

No, I didnt wait, Rod has quite a lot of behind the scenes forethought going on - and he hasnt mentioned cubing.

If he feels he wanted to, I can always take this back a move, no damage done, the Herd will still be on the bar sipping cocktails.

[Roderick]

I also expected a herd cube and a play....  But the cube wasn't turned and there was the anti-joker dance.

If I had another point or some more ammo or wasn't down by quite as much I'd want to cube.  Seems just a touch early, despite me now being a clear favorite.  I think there are not that many market losing sequences here.

Now for the play.....

[NIHILIST]

Well, I appreciate your oversight was based on your respect for Rod's forethought, but I'm not sure I agree with you un-doing the move. But, I guess it's your call.


Bob

[Roderick]

I agree.  I think if a cube gets missed it gets missed and no worries.  I should think ahead enough and consider dancing.  I'll certainly keep it in mind moving forward!

[Roderick]

The hit is mandatory, so 15/13* for sure.

Then there is the ace.  It's either a safe play or an aggressive play.  The safe play is anchoring on the 3.  The aggressive play is 7/6.

The aggressive play gives the herd 2's, 3's and 5's that are mega anti-jokers.  Then there are the double entries from the bar which I'd attack; however with no anchor, all my blots, being behind in the race and your 3-point board I'll have some potential trouble barring some really lucky rolls.  There is such a huge swing of equity just with those anti-jokers....  I'm a favorite now...  Maybe 60% even gammon for herd and me.  So maybe I have 0.2 equity now.  The anti-jokers each make me a substantial underdog - maybe -0.8, for a 1 point swing on each.  That means the 3 of those rolls combined make the non-safe play wrong by close to 0.1 (3 points /36 rolls), all else being equal.

The safe play leaves me with a take no matter what you roll.  The nearly complete broken 5-point prime might even give me a cube depending on the here's roll and the threat of me pointing or making that broken prime.  Of course, in the event that you double dance or dance with one and enter on my 5 I might be better off playing aggressively.  Safe turns the 3's and 2's from a joker for you into a cruddy roll.

It just seems like the safe play leads to more immediate cubes for me and no anti-joker susceptibility.

So....  15/13*, 23/22

[diane]

Now the decision is made, it wasn't an oversight, I analysed the position and found it to be no double. Based on that, and lack of any speculation from roderick, I didn't pause.

Moving back one move in this scenario, to my mind changes nothing. He rolled one of the possible rolls, and could just as easily re-roll it, or not, as first time out. It is different from the herds position last game, when going back would have influenced decisions and changed outcomes.

I do have to make some calls, but I rarely do it on my own ability alone, for obvious reasons. 

[Roderick]

Hear hear!