Poll
I suck at shot counting. I missed the 65 to hit, so you are right 14/36.
Question: Move 
Option 1: 23/14
votes: 3
Option 2: 23/18, 6/2
votes: 0
Option 3: 10/6, 10/5
votes: 2
Option 4: 10/5, 6/2
votes: 1
Option 5: 10/6, 7/2
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4
Post by: diane on June 29, 2011, 09:47:38 PM
Post by: diane on June 29, 2011, 09:47:38 PM
Position ID: 3DZDAQxid2cAEA
Match ID: cAm2ABAAGAAA
Match ID: cAm2ABAAGAAA
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4
Post by: ah_clem on June 30, 2011, 08:06:15 PM
Post by: ah_clem on June 30, 2011, 08:06:15 PM
Spoiler
I voted to run. Not sure if it's correct. My thought is that when it works (16/36 times) it nearly puts the game on ice for us. And when it doesn't we still have a pretty good chance since stog has two checkers stuck behind our blockade and we'll only have one to extricate.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4
Post by: Krazula on June 30, 2011, 09:01:09 PM
Post by: Krazula on June 30, 2011, 09:01:09 PM
Spoiler
ah_clem, this only works 14/36times, but my vote and reasoning is the same as yours.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4
Post by: ah_clem on July 01, 2011, 02:23:16 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 01, 2011, 02:23:16 AM
Spoiler
Quote from: Krazula on June 30, 2011, 09:01:09 PM
ah_clem, this only works 14/36times, but my vote and reasoning is the same as yours.
I suck at shot counting. I missed the 65 to hit, so you are right 14/36.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4
Post by: ah_clem on July 03, 2011, 12:55:48 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 03, 2011, 12:55:48 PM
rollout
Despite the fact that we got clobbered with the 65, running out to the 14 is best by a good margin. Anything else is at least a double whopper.
1. Rollout 23/14 Eq.: -0.215
0.524 0.103 0.008 - 0.476 0.112 0.003 CL -0.040 CF -0.215
[0.001 0.004 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2. Rollout 10/6 10/5 Eq.: -0.408 ( -0.192)
0.434 0.174 0.012 - 0.566 0.113 0.004 CL -0.357 CF -0.408
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
3. Rollout 23/18 6/2 Eq.: -0.518 ( -0.302)
0.448 0.146 0.011 - 0.552 0.151 0.009 CL -0.407 CF -0.518
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
4. Rollout 10/5 6/2 Eq.: -0.624 ( -0.409)
0.437 0.155 0.012 - 0.563 0.164 0.008 CL -0.455 CF -0.624
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
Despite the fact that we got clobbered with the 65, running out to the 14 is best by a good margin. Anything else is at least a double whopper.
1. Rollout 23/14 Eq.: -0.215
0.524 0.103 0.008 - 0.476 0.112 0.003 CL -0.040 CF -0.215
[0.001 0.004 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
2. Rollout 10/6 10/5 Eq.: -0.408 ( -0.192)
0.434 0.174 0.012 - 0.566 0.113 0.004 CL -0.357 CF -0.408
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
3. Rollout 23/18 6/2 Eq.: -0.518 ( -0.302)
0.448 0.146 0.011 - 0.552 0.151 0.009 CL -0.407 CF -0.518
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.014]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
4. Rollout 10/5 6/2 Eq.: -0.624 ( -0.409)
0.437 0.155 0.012 - 0.563 0.164 0.008 CL -0.455 CF -0.624
[0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.013]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]