Poll
Question: take? 
Option 1: Take
votes: 5
Option 2: Pass
votes: 1
Title: Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass
Post by: diane on July 01, 2011, 09:50:57 AM
Post by: diane on July 01, 2011, 09:50:57 AM
Position ID: YndnCADcNkMBDA
Match ID: MBmgABAAGAAA
Match ID: MBmgABAAGAAA
Title: Re: Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass
Post by: ah_clem on July 01, 2011, 12:58:01 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 01, 2011, 12:58:01 PM
Spoiler
Our take point at this match score is 20%. If stog misses we're almost there, and he misses 14/36 times or about 39%. The only thing unclear about the take is the possibility of gammons and that may tilt it towards a pass, but I'm going to say take.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2011, 01:51:30 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 02, 2011, 01:51:30 AM
Diane,
Can you post the sgf file? I'd like to do some rolllouts once the cube decision is over.
Can you post the sgf file? I'd like to do some rolllouts once the cube decision is over.
Title: Re: Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass
Post by: diane on July 02, 2011, 04:37:48 AM
Post by: diane on July 02, 2011, 04:37:48 AM
of course..though I always post the gnu ID, so you can always do it from that.
Title: Re: Game 4, move 10: Herd Take or Pass
Post by: ah_clem on July 03, 2011, 03:49:37 AM
Post by: ah_clem on July 03, 2011, 03:49:37 AM
rollout
Stog is only 47.5% to win this one, and gammons are not terribly common, so this is not a double by a good margin, and it would be a HUGE octuple whopper to pass.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.040 (Money: -0.043)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.215
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.785)
3. Double, take -0.018 ( -0.233)
Proper cube action: No double, take (22.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.476 0.112 0.003 - 0.524 0.103 0.008 CL +0.040 CF +0.215
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.004 0.002 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Player Herd owns 2-cube:
0.475 0.108 0.004 - 0.525 0.131 0.010 CL -0.018 CF -0.018
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 CL 0.012 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Spoiler
Stog is only 47.5% to win this one, and gammons are not terribly common, so this is not a double by a good margin, and it would be a HUGE octuple whopper to pass.
Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity +0.040 (Money: -0.043)
Cubeful equities:
1. No double +0.215
2. Double, pass +1.000 ( +0.785)
3. Double, take -0.018 ( -0.233)
Proper cube action: No double, take (22.9%)
Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
0.476 0.112 0.003 - 0.524 0.103 0.008 CL +0.040 CF +0.215
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.004 0.002 CL 0.005 CF 0.010]
Player Herd owns 2-cube:
0.475 0.108 0.004 - 0.525 0.131 0.010 CL -0.018 CF -0.018
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 CL 0.012 CF 0.012]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
[close]