Poll
I do check with gnu before doing that, it listed 4/o as the top move, but with nothing at all separating the next 2 or 3 moves. Given no one was commenting much here, even though I was trying to get some chat going about the best ways to play careful bear offs like these, I thought I would skip another 6-0 vote.
Interesting though - maybe the roll out [as opposed to 2ply analysis] will help us all understand more. Thanks for the comments ;)
I would have also looked carefully at clearing the 6 last turn instead of taking a single checker off. But what's done is done, and I don't think it makes a lot of difference.
As to the current decision, which is worse: being odd-ended, or leaving a gap? My take is that since 6/5 6/4 gives us three checkers on the five and four points, it's not really odd-ended. Only 6-5 forces us to leave a shot.
By contrast, something like 2/off 2/1 has just as many shot forcing rolls (only 6-4), but the gap gives us some awkward rolls immediately (eg 4-2 ) and shot forcing rolls for the forseeable future. Plus, it gives him a place to anchor.
6/5 6/4
Question: Move? 
Option 1: 6/5, 6/4
votes: 5
Option 2: 4/3, 4/2
votes: 0
Option 3: 5/4, 5/3
votes: 1
Option 4: 3/2, 3/1
votes: 0
Title: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: diane on July 26, 2011, 11:08:01 PM
Post by: diane on July 26, 2011, 11:08:01 PM
Position ID: 7/YAAGDbtgEAAA
Match ID: UQmlABAAGAAA
Stog is obviously going nowhere, after the 4-2, herd rolled 1-1 and moved 4/off.
This 2-1 now could affect how the rest of the bear off goes, so choose wisely!
Match ID: UQmlABAAGAAA
Stog is obviously going nowhere, after the 4-2, herd rolled 1-1 and moved 4/off.
This 2-1 now could affect how the rest of the bear off goes, so choose wisely!
Title: Re: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: Krazula on July 27, 2011, 03:58:03 AM
Post by: Krazula on July 27, 2011, 03:58:03 AM
Spoiler
It was an error to play 4/0 with the 11 last roll. 6/5(2) 4/3 2/1 looks better to me, so does 6/5(2) 4/2. There is almost no way that stog is going to win a race here and he have no need for gammon so clearing the 6 would have been a good idea, it would also put 4 checkers on our 5 and 2 on our 4 which is a very good way to sit to avoid leaving a shot in the next 2 rolls. Playing 4/0 made it so there are no rolls that could leave a shot this turn, but next turn there are some, now if we roll a 65 next roll we'll be forced to leave a shot, so there is 22/1296 chance that we'll be on the bar on our next roll instead of a 0 chance if we had cleared the 5 last time. But since we're in the position we're in now the best play is 6/5 6/4.
[close]
Title: Re: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: diane on July 27, 2011, 10:20:36 AM
Post by: diane on July 27, 2011, 10:20:36 AM
Quote from: Krazula on July 27, 2011, 03:58:03 AMIt was an error to play 4/0 with the 11 last roll.
I do check with gnu before doing that, it listed 4/o as the top move, but with nothing at all separating the next 2 or 3 moves. Given no one was commenting much here, even though I was trying to get some chat going about the best ways to play careful bear offs like these, I thought I would skip another 6-0 vote.
Interesting though - maybe the roll out [as opposed to 2ply analysis] will help us all understand more. Thanks for the comments ;)
Title: Re: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: Krazula on July 27, 2011, 12:34:37 PM
Post by: Krazula on July 27, 2011, 12:34:37 PM
Roll out puts my play on top, only by about .18% though, so its a bit closer that I thought.
Title: Re: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: stog on July 27, 2011, 01:11:08 PM
Post by: stog on July 27, 2011, 01:11:08 PM
am i playing a bot?
Title: Re: Game 4, move 30: Herd 2-1
Post by: ah_clem on July 27, 2011, 02:54:52 PM
Post by: ah_clem on July 27, 2011, 02:54:52 PM
Spoiler
I would have also looked carefully at clearing the 6 last turn instead of taking a single checker off. But what's done is done, and I don't think it makes a lot of difference.
As to the current decision, which is worse: being odd-ended, or leaving a gap? My take is that since 6/5 6/4 gives us three checkers on the five and four points, it's not really odd-ended. Only 6-5 forces us to leave a shot.
By contrast, something like 2/off 2/1 has just as many shot forcing rolls (only 6-4), but the gap gives us some awkward rolls immediately (eg 4-2 ) and shot forcing rolls for the forseeable future. Plus, it gives him a place to anchor.
6/5 6/4
[close]