Question:
Herd to play 44:
Option 1: 20/16(3) 13/9
votes: 3
Option 2: 13/1* 13/9
votes: 0
Option 3: 20/16 13/9(2) 8/4
votes: 1
Option 4: 20/16 13/5 13/9
votes: 0
Option 5: 20/16(3) 9/5
votes: 2
The Herd have quite a few options with this 44... if you don't see what you like, I'll add more!
Spoiler
We'll be up by 18 pips after this play, so I don't see the utility of leaving shots for no good reason, which leads me to play 20/16(3) 9/5.
Making the nine point is laudable, but we don't need to box him in if we stay ahead in the race.
if gammons counted, I'd blitz with 13/1* 13/9.
Not at all sure what's best AtS.
Spoiler
i would play 20-16(3) escaping our 3 back checkers then for the 4th 4 13-9. we're up 18 pips and the most basic premise of bg is its a race, so run. we also build a (broken) 5 prime. we are hit w/ 1's , 6-4 and dbl 6's but i'll take that chance with his 2 checkers back, behind in the race and his one pt board.
rollout:
Spoiler
Moving our three backmen out is the right idea, then with our opponent's weak board it's worth the risk of leaving a shot to build the blockade.
XGID=-a-aBBB-CA--cB---bbfC-----:1:1:1:44:4:1:0:5:10
X:Player 1 O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:1 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
| X O O | | O X |
| X O O | | O X |
| | | O X |
| | | O |
| | | 6 |
| |BAR| |
| | | |
| | | |
| O X | | | +---+
| O X | | X X X | | 2 |
| O X X | | X X X O O | +---+
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count X: 149 O: 151 X-O: 4-1/5
Cube: 2, X own cube
X to play 44
1. Rollout¹ 20/16(3) 13/9 eq:+0.379
Player: 73.18% (G:20.52% B:2.35%)
Opponent: 26.82% (G:4.04% B:0.26%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.373..+0.385) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
2. Rollout¹ 20/16(3) 9/5 eq:+0.321 (-0.058)
Player: 71.00% (G:17.49% B:1.88%)
Opponent: 29.00% (G:4.72% B:0.32%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.315..+0.327) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 22 seconds
3. Rollout¹ 20/16(2) 13/9(2) eq:+0.313 (-0.066)
Player: 71.42% (G:25.08% B:3.75%)
Opponent: 28.58% (G:5.50% B:0.30%)
Confidence: ±0.007 (+0.306..+0.320) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 39 seconds
4. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/9 13/5 eq:+0.312 (-0.066)
Player: 70.34% (G:24.25% B:2.29%)
Opponent: 29.66% (G:4.50% B:0.36%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.306..+0.318) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 11 seconds
5. Rollout¹ 20/16 13/9(2) 8/4 eq:+0.304 (-0.075)
Player: 69.99% (G:24.57% B:2.30%)
Opponent: 30.01% (G:4.56% B:0.27%)
Confidence: ±0.006 (+0.298..+0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 48 seconds
¹ 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2