Improvers Corner Number Two
Last week we looked at a positional mid-game double. This week we look at an example of another type that draws huge mistakes from every class of player, the blitz. A blitz is any position where the attacker is shooting at one or more blots inboard in an effort to close them out. These always come with a large gammon threat and are usually very difficult to evaluate correctly. Take a look at this position.
Red is on roll in the first game of a three point match. As we learned last week, He should be a little more aggressive with the cube at this score than he would be for money. This is not a money double but he can just about turn the cube here. He wins around 57% including 25% gammons. Just to clarify those figures, that means Red can expect to win 57 games out of 100 of which 32 will be plain wins and 25 gammons. Of White’s 43 wins about 15 will be gammons. All this makes for a very easy take, but White (the same 1750 player who played the Red checkers in last week’s position) passed, an enormous and terrible blunder. If you find it hard to evaluate this sort of position, you need to develop the skill of “reading the numbersâ€. All that this means is that you mentally scan through Red’s 21 possible rolls to see how they play. This is a vital skill and can only be developed with practice, so start with this position and see if you can figure out just how many rolls lead to an immediate shot for White, after which her strong board will count for a lot. Often Red won’t hit at all and in some scenarios he won’t ever jump White’s prime! All this sounds so good that you begin to wonder why Red is doubling. Well it is mainly on his small race lead and getting first shot at the blots. Not doubling at all is a reasonable play, but doubling is correct and best of all, it gives White the chance to make an enormous blunder!
Here’s another one, with Red on roll and owning the cube in a five point match. Three 1800+ players evaluated this as too good to double. Were they right?
What do the rollouts say about this position? If it was a money game, then Red would have a redouble and not turning the cube would be a small, although clear, error costing about 0.05 points. He wins this (in round figures) 64% including 35% gammons and 3% backgammons. On the other side White will win 36% including 10% gammons of her own. Passing would be a big blunder, costing 0.2 points.
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