Game 7, move 1 : Forum 3-3

[diane]

Forum, blue, to move 3-3 [ok, that's enough options for now!!]

4PPgASHgc/ABMA:cImtADAAIAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Pointing on his head is mandatory. 

As for where to take the other three, it seems like making our three point is best - certainly it is when gammons are in play, but with this being DMP  moving the runners might be better.

I'm not sure, so I'll go with making a point in our home board.  How wrong could it be?

8/5(2)*  6/3(2)

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[stiefnu]

Spoiler

8/5* (2), 6/3 (2) is clearly the favourite move and so I guess one should go along with it, particularly as the rollouts done of replies suggest this is the best move here.  However, I do have a nagging doubt about the wisdom of leaving a blot on our 8-point.  The late, great and sadly missed Walter Trice, though admittedly writing about opening moves rather than replies, said "...the question of the worst play for each roll is a very easy one!  No matter what you roll, if you move both numbers from the eight-point, you can be confident that you have made the worst possible play".  Should this be a consideration here?

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[NIHILIST]

No.

Bob

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

However, I do have a nagging doubt about the wisdom of leaving a blot on our 8-point.  The late, great and sadly missed Walter Trice, though admittedly writing about opening moves rather than replies, said "...the question of the worst play for each roll is a very easy one!  No matter what you roll, if you move both numbers from the eight-point, you can be confident that you have made the worst possible play".  Should this be a consideration here?

As Bob put it so succinctly, no.

You can't roll doubles on the opening roll, so any opening move involving two checkers from the eight will leave at least two blots and fail to make a point.

We rolled doubles and this move makes a point, hits a blot and only leaves one indirect fly shot from the bar.  It's not at all the same.   One could say "apples and oranges", but those fruit are too similar to make a good analogy.  It's more like trying to compare "Wednesday" to "cheese". 

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[roadkillbooks]

  :laugh:Wednesday to cheese  I love it.. it will be my new motto.. it's not a black and white issue.. its more like Wednesday and cheese.

[diane]

Wednesday to cheese  I love it.. it will be my new motto.. it's not a black and white issue.. its more like Wednesday and cheese.

    he does have a cracking way of getting a message across, dont he 

[stiefnu]

It's more like trying to compare "Wednesday" to "cheese"

lol, as they say in these parts!  Mind you, Wensleydale cheese does go nicely with apples, and I am easily confused...  Ok, Diane, just don't go and roll rkb a juicy 26 or 44, alright?

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

More precisely, after we make the 2 points, he will have 3 hitting returns; 4-4, 2-6 and 6-2. Hardly a reason to make another play.

In positions like these, at DMP, I'm reminded of some sage advice Paul Magriel gave at a tourney seminar years ago.......AT DMP, PRIMES ARE USUALLY MORE IMPORTANT THAN BLITZES. Happily, this roll accomplishes lots of both.

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Bob

[ah_clem]

Seems like we have consensus on the move.

Since rkb has already indicated that he's going to double we might as well start discussing whether we take or not.

Spoiler

We've got a free drop here. The rule of thumb is that  when the opponent wins the opening roll, exercising the free drop is correct unless we roll doubles or  point on his head.

 We rolled doubles and pointed on his head. It's a take.

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

No surprise here.  Any other move is a blunder.  Oh, and with a 60% chance of winning the game, passing would be a huge blunder.

    1. Rollout          8/5*(2) 6/3(2)               Eq.:  -0.592
       0.602 0.298 0.050 - 0.398 0.132 0.022 CL  +0.204 CF  -0.592
      [0.003 0.006 0.004 - 0.003 0.005 0.003 CL   0.005 CF   0.011]

    2. Rollout          24/21(2) 8/5*(2)             Eq.:  -0.710 ( -0.118)
       0.572 0.243 0.022 - 0.428 0.131 0.014 CL  +0.145 CF  -0.710
      [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.005 0.002 CL   0.005 CF   0.009]

    3. Rollout          13/10(2) 8/5*(2)             Eq.:  -0.722 ( -0.130)
       0.570 0.276 0.032 - 0.430 0.155 0.023 CL  +0.139 CF  -0.722
      [0.002 0.006 0.003 - 0.002 0.005 0.003 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 869790528 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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