Game 7, move 8 and 9 : Forum 4-5

[diane]

Ok, two nexts...Forum rolled 6-3 and made the two point..rkb danced with 5-3

Forum, blue, to move 4-5

tbkGAVB22wYAAw:UQm2ADAAIAAA




PS - as I am emigrating on Thursday this week, I will be dismantling this computer later today.  This match will therefore be picked up by one of the other moderators.  I had hoped to see it to the end - but the end is such a long time coming 
If this is looking decided quickly, there might be time for me to move it once more...

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

What do want to do here?  Do we want to pick up another blot?  Do we want to avoid picking up another blot?  Do we want to avoid getting hit?  Does it matter?  

A this stage of the game where we've almost surely won, I tend to play anti-jokers.  The only joker I see is us leaving a blot on his 5, him rolling 1-1, us entering and being unable to leap his 4 prime.  Yes, this is a longshot, but it induces me to move both runners rather than one.  

20/15 20/16

[close]

[stiefnu]

I am emigrating on Thursday

Bon voyage, Diane, and good luck!  

Spoiler

I don't see any great advantage in hanging back here so have plumped for 20/15, 20/16.  I don't want to find us crunching, after he makes his ace point and we roll 11 or 33.

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[NIHILIST]

I agree.

Bob

[diane]

Spoiler

I am always afraid of an ace point game...so my thoughts were to try and run one further and faster to get one in and try and stop that becoming a point and dangerous...hence I moved one as far as it would go - avoiding blots wherever possible 

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

Yes it is good to add hitters for the ace point, but 20/11 doesn't do that, as it is 10 pips away. We already have 6-4 to hit loose and we will switch with 5-5. 7/2 ups the hitting numbers from 25 to 27 but loses our winning 3-3 at the cost of some super-jokers so it looks 20/15, 20/16 by default.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Close, with our preferred move a .018 favorite.



    1. Rollout          20/16 20/15                  Eq.:  +0.833
       0.916 0.676 0.141 - 0.084 0.005 0.000 CL  +0.833 CF  +0.833
      [0.002 0.007 0.006 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          20/11                        Eq.:  +0.815 ( -0.018)
       0.908 0.678 0.138 - 0.092 0.006 0.000 CL  +0.815 CF  +0.815
      [0.002 0.008 0.006 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    3. Rollout          20/16 7/2                    Eq.:  +0.733 ( -0.100)
       0.867 0.722 0.190 - 0.133 0.032 0.002 CL  +0.733 CF  +0.733
      [0.002 0.007 0.007 - 0.002 0.002 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 841006465 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

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