Game 2, move 3: Herd to cube?

[diane]

We had probably best have a think about this...

4NvBARgzG/ADIA:cAmgAAAAEAAA

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

Well, even though I am an aggressive player usually, but I won't cube here.We're leading 2-0 in a 5-pter, so we should be a bit cautious throwing the cube. We got 2 of our men out of play and he has a solid defence on our deuce point. Combine these with him having a 3-pt prime and realize that throwing the cube might not a good decision.

BTW, if I was the one being offered the cube, I would take it without a moment of thinking.

PL

[close]

[sixty_something]

Spoiler

i agree completely with PL on this one

[close]

how in the world did this get to be "move 1"?

[stiefnu]

Spoiler

After reading PersianLord's wise words, on sober reflection I have changed my vote from cube to hold.

[close]

[diane]

how in the world did this get to be "move 1"?

I have no idea what you are talking about 

[PersianLord]

Any rollout?

[ah_clem]

Any rollout?

I've been away at the beach for the last 10 days so I haven't been able to roll out anything.  Moreover, I was stuck using an I-touch (like an I-phone, but without the phone) pirating a very spotty wifi connection, hence the three and four letter responses instead of my usual loquacious posts.

I'll probably roll out the last several moves in the coming days, including this cube decision.  Here's what I think:

We're ahead in the race and have a better position and usually that's enough to double.  But we're ahead in the match and I don't see any market losers so I voted to hold.  It's probably close, but I see a lot of unpalatable re-cubes on the horizon.  Definitely a take by a pretty good margin.

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Cubing is a horrendous sextuple whopper. And it's a massive take.  Not anywhere near close.  I'm glad that I made the right decision (hold), but am kicking myself for thinking it might be close.  What was I thinking?


1. No double            +0.312
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.688)
3. Double, take         -0.156  ( -0.468)
Proper cube action: No double, take (40.5%)

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.579 0.157 0.015 - 0.421 0.093 0.003 CL  +0.187 CF  +0.312
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
Player r_monk owns 2-cube:
  0.577 0.188 0.029 - 0.423 0.092 0.005 CL  +0.485 CF  -0.156
[0.002 0.005 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.012 CF   0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

[PersianLord]

rollout

Spoiler

Cubing is a horrendous sextuple whopper. And it's a massive take.  Not anywhere near close.  I'm glad that I made the right decision (hold), but am kicking myself for thinking it might be close.  What was I thinking?


1. No double            +0.312
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.688)
3. Double, take         -0.156  ( -0.468)
Proper cube action: No double, take (40.5%)

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.579 0.157 0.015 - 0.421 0.093 0.003 CL  +0.187 CF  +0.312
[0.002 0.003 0.002 - 0.002 0.001 0.000 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
Player r_monk owns 2-cube:
  0.577 0.188 0.029 - 0.423 0.092 0.005 CL  +0.485 CF  -0.156
[0.002 0.005 0.003 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.012 CF   0.019]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 893898012 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

[close]

Thanks for the rollout. It's interesting to see that how much valuable is owning the cube for White here, as passing the cube is even a bigger mistake.