Game 1, move 1: Herd 4-1

[diane]

Position ID: 4NvgATDgc+QBUA
Match ID: cAmmAAAAAAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

Since giles has started a blockade we need to get our runners moving before they're stuck.  Splitting to the 20 is a bit risky, since he has three builders aimed at it (the blot will be under the gun), but in this case the 7 & 8 points are stripped mitigating the threat somewhat.  But our choice is to split to the 21, which is not really any safer, or sit on the ace which carries the risk of squatting there while he fills in his prime.

bar/20 is my choice.

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[Krazula]

Spoiler

I like B/21 6/5. It doesn't matter much if we get hit off the 5point because its early in the game and giles doesn't have any points made in his homeboard yet. But it does us much good if giles fails to hit us and we make the key 5 point on our next roll though. B/20 looks appealing too since the 20 is the best anchor we can make, but the 21 isn't much worse and my play starts both the 21 and our 5.

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-edited to add spoiler tag, thanks moonshadow

[moonshadow]

Spoiler

I like B/21 6/5. It doesn't matter much if we get hit .  .  .  .

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stog adds spoiler to quote

kraz, it took me a while to figure it out, but use that "spoiler" button (the one on the 2nd row, 2nd from the right)  to hide your comments-- that way those in the herd won't be "influenced".  

I like to make my mind up my mind about how I will vote first, then "peek" at what others have said, whereas if the comments are there in plain sight, I can't resist reading them.

Spoiler

ditto ah_clem--i like running to the 20.

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[stog]

Spoiler

i like Bar/24, 13/9 as it brings us in to build our own, while also preserving an anchor if we are hit again, and from which we can assemble a more forward anchor; the game is early and we are in no danger of being trapped...unless

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[ah_clem]

Seeing as there isn't a cube decision looming, it's not giving away anything by peeking at a rollout:

Spoiler

Gnubg 2-ply rollout likes entering on the 21 and then playing the ace with another checker.  The reason (hat tip to David Rockwell) is that we're going to get attacked whether we place it on his four or five point, and it's less advantageous for giles to hit us on his four than on his five point.  Thus, playing bar/20 is a small error.   There's not much difference equity-wise between slotting our 5 and moving up the back man - slotting wins more games but loses more gammons.  As expected, sitting on the ace is poor.

BTW, I mooted this position over at Stick's site to see what some experts had to say about it.  Worth a look.



    1. Rollout          bar/21 6/5                   Eq.:  -0.223
       0.463 0.118 0.008 - 0.537 0.186 0.014 CL  -0.155 CF  -0.223
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]
     
    2. Rollout          bar/21 24/23                 Eq.:  -0.227 ( -0.003)
       0.453 0.115 0.006 - 0.547 0.164 0.010 CL  -0.153 CF  -0.227
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.011]
       
    3. Rollout          bar/21 11/10                 Eq.:  -0.247 ( -0.024)
       0.446 0.117 0.006 - 0.554 0.167 0.009 CL  -0.170 CF  -0.247
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
       
    4. Rollout          bar/20                       Eq.:  -0.250 ( -0.027)
       0.449 0.116 0.006 - 0.551 0.172 0.009 CL  -0.165 CF  -0.250
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.012]
       
    5. Rollout          bar/24 13/9                  Eq.:  -0.283 ( -0.060)
       0.433 0.129 0.008 - 0.567 0.172 0.010 CL  -0.193 CF  -0.283
      [0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 887301727 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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