Game 3, move 6: Herd 2-2

[diane]

A flurry of obvious moves were played after the herd moved 4-2

clemstog: 3-1, 8/5*, 6/5
Herd: 6-2, Bar/17*
clemstog: Bar/23, 10/4

Now Herd has this 2-2 to play. As usual, with doubles like this, lots of options, and therefore chances to mess up  

Position ID: aO/AAxCwrwdDAA
Match ID: cAmpABAACAAA

[ah_clem]

Housekeeping note: stog is back so he' now in the box and I'm rejoining the herd

Spoiler

He's made the bar five and six points and has the four slotted. Much as I'd like to stop at the four point we need a tempo hit here.  So 6/2*(2) seems best.  We don't want to leave a direct shot so I don't like the clever 6/4(2) 6/2*.  We could play safe and just clean up - after the move we'll be 20 pips up - but the resulting inflexible position and his looming board makes me shy away from that.

[close]

[diane]

Spoiler

I don't like the clever 6/4(2) 6/2*. 

[close]

Spoiler

Not even a little bit?  I do like this, at 1-1, I think a bit of aggression could go a long way..we would have a 3 pointboard..he may well leave us with a return shot...no one else want to join me being a devil?

[close]

[stog]

Spoiler

clem if u get a chance - do message me or post your ideas for the clemstog moves where possible and i'll quote them -- hope u r enjoying London - i'm there too this weekend!

[close]

[PersianLord]

Spoiler

17/15, 7/5, 6/4 (2) for me.

With this move:

i) we build a very important pt (4-pt) in our board
ii) we duplicate his 3s

If he hits us and fails to make his 4-pt, we'll be in a better position.

[close]

PL

[moonshadow]

Spoiler

He's made the bar five and six points and has the four slotted. Much as I'd like to stop at the four point we need a tempo hit here.  So 6/2*(2) seems best.  We don't want to leave a direct shot so I don't like the clever 6/4(2) 6/2*.  We could play safe and just clean up - after the move we'll be 20 pips up - but the resulting inflexible position and his looming board makes me shy away from that.

My sentiments exactly. And I would also add that is in looking ahead I don't think the 2 blots we leave after 6/2*(2) are that potentially diasasterous-- we have 3 points made in our inner board vs his 2 pts, and if he does enter he can only put 1 of our checkers on the bar at best, as well as leaving a number of return hits, including the blot on the 21. (He can't come off the bar, hit one of our blots and then cover his inner board blot on the 21, the best he can do is enter and cover or enter and hit, not enter, hit, cover.)

The way I see it is that any future volley lies heavily in our favor and if clemstog doesnt roll lucky, a good possibility of a gammon for the herd.

Now I will have to check this with gnu and see if 6/2*(2) is as strong a move as I think it is. . ... .  .

[close]

Spoiler

Yup,  6/2*(2) was a big time blunder

So much for my trenchant commentary and analysis. BlunderMoon strikes again.


    1. Cubeful 3-ply    17/13 8/6 7/5                Eq.:  +0.893
       0.713 0.105 0.001 - 0.287 0.031 0.000
        3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
    2. Cubeful 3-ply    17/11 7/5                    Eq.:  +0.885 ( -0.007)
       0.711 0.109 0.001 - 0.289 0.033 0.000
        3-ply cubeful prune [grandmaster]
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    6/2*(2)                      Eq.:  +0.807 ( -0.085)
       0.686 0.216 0.004 - 0.314 0.067 0.002
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    4. Cubeful 2-ply    17/15 7/5 6/4(2)             Eq.:  +0.784 ( -0.109)
       0.685 0.179 0.005 - 0.315 0.058 0.001
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

[close]

[ah_clem]

This is where we missed the double.  After this roll, it became too good.  But how many of us would have seen this as a double?  It certainly never crossed my mind....

In retrospect, we've escaped both checkers, we're up by 12 pips, and have a blot to attack with 12 checkers in the zone.  Holding the cube is a whopper with cheese.

Cube analysis
Rollout cubeless equity  +0.508 (Money:  +0.467)

Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.936
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.064)
3. No double            +0.779  ( -0.156)
Proper cube action: Double, take

Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.687 0.147 0.004 - 0.313 0.056 0.002 CL  +0.508 CF  +0.779
[0.001 0.002 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.011]
Player clemstog owns 2-cube:
  0.694 0.148 0.006 - 0.306 0.061 0.005 CL  +1.320 CF  +0.936
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.014 CF   0.017]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925622946 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]