Game 4, move 9: Herd 5-4

[diane]

Position ID: 3DZDAQxid2cAEA
Match ID: cAm2ABAAGAAA

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I voted to run.  Not sure if it's correct.  My thought is that when it works (16/36 times) it nearly puts the game on ice for us.   And when it doesn't we still have a pretty good chance since stog has two checkers stuck behind our blockade and we'll only have one to extricate.

[close]

[Krazula]

Spoiler

ah_clem, this only works 14/36times, but my vote and reasoning is the same as yours.

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

ah_clem, this only works 14/36times, but my vote and reasoning is the same as yours.

I suck at shot counting.  I missed the 65 to hit, so you are right 14/36.

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Despite the fact that we got clobbered with the 65, running out to the 14 is best by a good margin.  Anything else is at least a double whopper.


    1. Rollout          23/14                        Eq.:  -0.215
       0.524 0.103 0.008 - 0.476 0.112 0.003 CL  -0.040 CF  -0.215
      [0.001 0.004 0.002 - 0.001 0.002 0.001 CL   0.005 CF   0.010]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    2. Rollout          10/6 10/5                    Eq.:  -0.408 ( -0.192)
       0.434 0.174 0.012 - 0.566 0.113 0.004 CL  -0.357 CF  -0.408
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    3. Rollout          23/18 6/2                    Eq.:  -0.518 ( -0.302)
       0.448 0.146 0.011 - 0.552 0.151 0.009 CL  -0.407 CF  -0.518
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.006 CF   0.014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
    4. Rollout          10/5 6/2                     Eq.:  -0.624 ( -0.409)
       0.437 0.155 0.012 - 0.563 0.164 0.008 CL  -0.455 CF  -0.624
      [0.002 0.005 0.002 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.013]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 925503102 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]