Game 4, move 18: Herd 3-1

[diane]

Position ID: 172BAAhm204AAQ
Match ID: UYmlABAAGAAA

Stog rolled 6-5, forced move 22/11

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'm inclined to minimize shots here.  Than means 19/15, which leaves only 11 shots.  19/18, 10/7 leaves 15 shots without any apparent advantage.  The other move I'd consider id hitting loose with 7/3* - but this leaves 17 shots and some of them are double shots.  Maybe if gammons counted I'd be tempted, but not at this score.

The one thing that bothers me about leaving a minimum of shots is that we're still way behind in the pipcount, but I think we're better off passing the checker  on the 15 than trying to stay back and hit it.

19/15

[close]

[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

The right approach is to maintain contact and bring another checker to bear on his runner.  Minimizing contact (ie shots) with 19/15 is a .06 error.  Interesting position....


    1. Rollout          10/6                         Eq.:  +0.146
       0.597 0.110 0.003 - 0.403 0.024 0.000 CL  +0.146 CF  +0.146
      [0.001 0.004 0.000 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    2. Rollout          8/4                          Eq.:  +0.105 ( -0.041)
       0.596 0.115 0.005 - 0.404 0.043 0.000 CL  +0.105 CF  +0.105
      [0.001 0.004 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    3. Rollout          10/7 8/7                     Eq.:  +0.103 ( -0.043)
       0.582 0.102 0.003 - 0.418 0.031 0.001 CL  +0.103 CF  +0.103
      [0.001 0.004 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.003 CF   0.003]

    4. Rollout          19/15                        Eq.:  +0.083 ( -0.063)
       0.595 0.086 0.004 - 0.405 0.053 0.002 CL  +0.083 CF  +0.083
      [0.001 0.003 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.001 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]

    5. Rollout          19/18 10/7                   Eq.:  +0.046 ( -0.100)
       0.559 0.090 0.004 - 0.441 0.036 0.000 CL  +0.046 CF  +0.046
      [0.001 0.004 0.001 - 0.001 0.001 0.000 CL   0.004 CF   0.004]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 926175629 and quasi-random dice
        Play: 0-ply cubeful [expert]
        Cube: 0-ply cubeful [expert]

[close]