Game 4, move 22: Herd 3-1

[diane]

Position ID: 7/YAADB2uxlAAA
Match ID: UYmsABAAGAAA

[NIHILIST]

Spoiler

Interesting position. This is one where the counter-intuitive play might be best.

We win the match simply by winning the game, we lose the match if we get gammoned. After our roll, we are wary of rolls by him containing a 6. If he rolls 6-2 thru 6-5 he must exit and if we miss him outside, we likely have to go after him in our home board. The last thing we want is a hitting contest where gammons are irrelevant to him but fatal to us. But, we must play the hand we are dealt.

We could play the 3 inside our board and move our loose checker the 1. We could play the entire number from our 8 point, leaving us with 2 blots and opening up gammon possibilities for him if he hits us with 6-1. I don't like that at all.

The counter-intuitive part comes if he rolls 6-6. Initial reaction is to not move our blot to the 13 point for fear we get hit with 6-6. If we don't, and he does, we just probably quietly lose and go to the Crawford game down 4-3. If we do and he does, we're on the bar facing his 4 point board, are favorites to enter and have chances of hitting one of his trailing checkers to still pull out the win.

I don't think we get gammoned very often in this scenario, so it seems like moving to the 13 point is actually less risky than it first appears.

Put me down for 17-13.

Bob

[close]

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

My take is that if he shakes a 66 and we're not sitting on the 13 point, we still have a chance to win going forward - down ~20 pips and on roll is not exactly the end of the story.  But if he hits us there, we're down ~43 pips and sitting on the bar facing a four point board - this is much worse.  Thus I avoid stepping into the hot zone that is the 13 point.

All that said, the moves are probably pretty close. 

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