Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 16 elmicho to move

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2 1

[elmicho]

Here goes:
The gammon isn't too big a thread, I have an edge in the race and choose to fight for it rather than wait for 22 or some other scenario.
I think I will win slightly more 4-cube games and loose slightly more gammons - question is if it's a good bargain.
23/21, 3/2

[Zorba]

Spoiler

Not splitting would be a blunder. Splitting wins 5.5% more games, but also loses 5.5% more gammons. For money, 1% extra wins compensates for 2% gammon losses giving a gammon value of 0.5; with the cube on 4 with only 5 points to go, the gammon value is less. Splitting is correct for money and even more so at this matchscore situation. At gammon save scores (f.i. leading crawford 2-away) it is unclear which move would be best.

    1. Rollout          23/21 3/2                    Eq.:  -0.4848
       0.2513 0.0561 0.0041 - 0.7487 0.1306 0.0053 CL  -0.5384 CF  -0.4848
      [0.0029 0.0047 0.0014 - 0.0029 0.0056 0.0015 CL   0.0064 CF   0.0074]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          23/21 4/3                    Eq.:  -0.5067 ( -0.0219)
       0.2445 0.0493 0.0049 - 0.7555 0.1494 0.0068 CL  -0.5593 CF  -0.5067
      [0.0026 0.0046 0.0013 - 0.0026 0.0063 0.0017 CL   0.0059 CF   0.0066]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Rollout          23/21 5/4                    Eq.:  -0.5188 ( -0.0341)
       0.2392 0.0488 0.0033 - 0.7608 0.1450 0.0053 CL  -0.5726 CF  -0.5188
      [0.0027 0.0049 0.0012 - 0.0027 0.0062 0.0012 CL   0.0064 CF   0.0071]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    4. Rollout          3/1 2/1                      Eq.:  -0.5900 ( -0.1052)
       0.1963 0.0186 0.0005 - 0.8037 0.0743 0.0057 CL  -0.6378 CF  -0.5900
      [0.0023 0.0049 0.0001 - 0.0023 0.0045 0.0038 CL   0.0049 CF   0.0055]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        217 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    5. Rollout          4/1                          Eq.:  -0.5939 ( -0.1091)
       0.1949 0.0159 0.0002 - 0.8051 0.0766 0.0111 CL  -0.6414 CF  -0.5939
      [0.0027 0.0067 0.0003 - 0.0027 0.0043 0.0057 CL   0.0058 CF   0.0065]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        216 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play:  2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 5 more moves within equity 0.08
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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