Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 1 Move 25 Herd to play

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5 1

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Spoiler

although taking 2 off leaves us vulnerable to 64 next throw, it ensures we get 2 off, as well as stopping our opponents double 44, and keeps us in race if he throws a bigger double

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

The race is close enough (~24 pips) and his board is weak enough that ripping off two and continuing to block fours seems right.  We're only forced to leave a blot with a roll of 64 and then he has to hit it and contain it.  I'll take that risk.

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[Zorba]

GNUbg rollout:

Spoiler

Ripping two off wins most games, and most gammons.

    1. Rollout          5/off 1/off                  Eq.:  +0.9543
       0.9637 0.0745 0.0024 - 0.0363 0.0000 0.0000 CL  +0.9619 CF  +0.9543
      [0.0006 0.0011 0.0020 - 0.0006 0.0000 0.0000 CL   0.0013 CF   0.0014]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        657 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Rollout          5/off 4/3                    Eq.:  +0.9434 ( -0.0108)
       0.9606 0.0662 0.0015 - 0.0394 0.0000 0.0000 CL  +0.9518 CF  +0.9434
      [0.0005 0.0011 0.0005 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL   0.0011 CF   0.0013]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        656 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Rollout          6/5 6/1                      Eq.:  +0.9091 ( -0.0452)
       0.9509 0.0372 0.0008 - 0.0491 0.0000 0.0000 CL  +0.9191 CF  +0.9091
      [0.0005 0.0007 0.0003 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 CL   0.0010 CF   0.0012]
        Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
        654 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 736195168 and quasi-random dice
        Play: world class 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
        keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 8 more moves within equity 0.16
        Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
        Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

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