Question:
6-2?
Option 1: 21/13
votes: 6
Option 2: 21/15 20/18
votes: 0
Option 3: 21/15 13/11
votes: 0
Option 4: 20/14 13/11
votes: 1
Option 5: 20/18 13/7
votes: 0
Option 6: 13/7 13/10
votes: 0
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-5-move-3-the-herd-to-play-6-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5373;image)
Zorba danced with an ill timed 6-6. We have a 6-2 to play.
Spoiler
At this score I'm going to advocate playing it safe with 21/13. Were gammons any good for us I'd play the more aggressive 13/7 13/10. But here we're just trying to win a single point and avoid gammons; after this play we've escaped one of our runners and have a homeboard point while he's got three men back and no development. I'll take that.
Spoiler
I'm outvoted already but, with time to think about it, seeing as he has one on the bar, I see sense in coming down to the 11-pt, then duping his 2s with a run to our 14-pt, so 13/11, 20/14. Not that I'd ever have considered this over the board - with a clock ticking (or an impatient fibster urging me on!), the running play would be the obvious move.
rollout
Spoiler
gnubg 0-ply likes the more aggressive play 20/14 13/11. The Herd's choice is within the margin of error.
1. Rollout 20/14 13/11 Eq.: +0.126
0.642 0.357 0.096 - 0.358 0.079 0.006 CL +0.126 CF +0.126
[0.004 0.008 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.009 CF 0.009]
2. Rollout 21/13 Eq.: +0.115 ( -0.011)
0.639 0.321 0.064 - 0.361 0.081 0.011 CL +0.115 CF +0.115
[0.003 0.007 0.004 - 0.003 0.002 0.002 CL 0.007 CF 0.007]
3. Rollout 21/15 13/11 Eq.: +0.109 ( -0.016)
0.636 0.337 0.077 - 0.364 0.081 0.007 CL +0.109 CF +0.109
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.001 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
4. Rollout 13/11 13/7 Eq.: +0.073 ( -0.053)
0.617 0.341 0.089 - 0.383 0.080 0.015 CL +0.073 CF +0.073
[0.004 0.007 0.006 - 0.004 0.002 0.002 CL 0.008 CF 0.008]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]