Game 1, move 5 : Herd 6-5

[diane]

move?

[stog]

erm.......the pic shows 6/5 roll?   

[diane]

Picture is correct - title not updated 

All aligned properly now...

[stog]

thx diane  

[ah_clem]

XG results

Spoiler

XG Roller++ puts the two vote-getting plays fairly close with anything else being a whopper.

3-ply rollout for the top two moves show a statistical tie. 13/8 13/7 wins fewer games (a single direct shot vs a double indirect shot is about even chance, but the blot in Patti's homeboard will be left uncovered with all the indirect hits) but wins more gammons.




XGID=---BbBD-A--B-B-c-d-c-Bba--:0:0:1:65:0:0:0:5:10

    1. XG Roller++ 13/8 11/5                    eq:+0.010
      Player:   49.39% (G:8.41% B:0.19%)
      Opponent: 50.61% (G:6.34% B:0.14%)

    2. XG Roller++ 13/8 13/7                    eq:-0.003 (-0.013)
      Player:   49.03% (G:8.93% B:0.21%)
      Opponent: 50.97% (G:7.10% B:0.16%)

    3. XG Roller++ 11/5 8/3                     eq:-0.072 (-0.082)
      Player:   47.01% (G:8.31% B:0.17%)
      Opponent: 52.99% (G:7.23% B:0.18%)

    4. XG Roller++ 11/6 8/2                     eq:-0.082 (-0.092)
      Player:   46.80% (G:8.58% B:0.19%)
      Opponent: 53.20% (G:7.66% B:0.23%)

    5. XG Roller++ 8/2 6/1                      eq:-0.089 (-0.099)
      Player:   46.80% (G:9.04% B:0.18%)
      Opponent: 53.20% (G:8.62% B:0.28%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2



    1. Rollout¹    13/8 11/5                    eq:-0.023
      Player:   48.92% (G:9.36% B:0.24%)
      Opponent: 51.08% (G:6.66% B:0.18%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.033..-0.013) - [77.7%]
      Duration: 13 minutes 28 seconds

    2. Rollout¹    13/8 13/7                    eq:-0.029 (-0.005)
      Player:   48.65% (G:9.77% B:0.31%)
      Opponent: 51.35% (G:7.31% B:0.24%)
      Confidence: ±0.010 (-0.038..-0.019) - [22.3%]
      Duration: 12 minutes 55 seconds



¹  1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
   Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.03, MET: Kazaross XG2

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