Game 1 Move 10 Herd cube decision

[ah_clem]

And we have a cube decision to make.  Double or hold?

[ah_clem]

A lopsided vote (7-1) so I'm ending it early.

I peeked at the bot results before posting, so no vote or analysis from me this time. 

I'd like to encourage participants to say why they're voting the way they are - the discussion is the main reason why these matches are interesting.  Of course, it's perfectly acceptable to vote without saying why. 

rollouts coming as soon as Z makes his take decision.

[ah_clem]

rollout 

Spoiler

Another play where 2-ply analysis and 0-ply rollout disagree.  Both say it's a blunder to hold the cube, analysis says clear take, rollout says clear pass.

These positions are tricky.  (c:


Cube analysis
2-ply cubeless equity  +0.512 (Money:  +0.511)
  0.671 0.281 0.017 - 0.329 0.124 0.005
Cubeful equities:
1. Double, take         +0.899
2. Double, pass         +1.000  ( +0.101)
3. No double            +0.730  ( -0.169)
Proper cube action: Double, take


Rollout details:
Centered 1-cube:
  0.681 0.282 0.016 - 0.319 0.115 0.006 CL  +0.555 CF  +0.807
[0.002 0.002 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.001 CL   0.006 CF   0.012]
Player Zorba owns 2-cube:
  0.695 0.284 0.017 - 0.305 0.104 0.011 CL  +1.320 CF  +1.093
[0.002 0.003 0.001 - 0.002 0.002 0.002 CL   0.015 CF   0.018]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 899112970 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]

1. Double, take         +1.093  (+.093)
2. Double, pass         +1.000 
3. No double            +0.807  (-.193)
Proper cube action: Double, pass

[close]