Question:
4-1?
Option 1: bar/24 13/9
votes: 3
Option 2: bar/24 11/7
votes: 0
Option 3: bar/24 8/4
votes: 0
Option 4: bar/24 6/2
votes: 0
Option 5: bar/21 24/23
votes: 6
Option 6: bar/21 11/10
votes: 0
Option 7: bar/21 8/7
votes: 0
Option 8: bar/21 6/5
votes: 0
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-4-move-4-the-herd-to-play-4-1/?action=dlattach;attach=5303;image)
4-1 to play
Position ID: sK+FASTgc8wBUA
Match ID: 8AmmAAAAIAAA
Spoiler
yeeeeeech!
(http://media1.break.com/dnet/media/content/pic3940.jpg)
What's the least bad move here?
He'll likely point on our head again if we enter with the four, but I don't think I'm in the mood to give him any more blots to aim at and there's nothing to do with the four if we enter with the one.
Bar/21 24/23 is awful, but it may be the least awful. I'm open to other suggestions...
Spoiler
Exactly what I think. Ugly, but I won't leave extra blots for him to hunt.
Spoiler
Coming in on the 4-pt would give him 10 shots that both hit and cover. Then moving up to the 23-pt would give him a couple more. Double 2s and 4s would be particular devastating, putting both our back men on the bar, against a 3 or maybe even 4 point board. An ace point game is rarely ideal but, under the circumstances, I think a more pragmatic move would be bar/24, 13/9.
Spoiler
I think we officially are in trouble here, but, again, cuz of the score, we cant get hurt too badly.
At this point I prefer to play with an anchor in his board, so my play is Bar-24, 13-9 It's true he has another blot to fire at, but its a 6 thats duplicated by the blot on his bar point.
Bob
Spoiler
bar/24 13/9 for me too, otherwise we stand to be hammered in the zone where surfers dread; the waves keep coming; you recover only to be smashed again. yes we need his 4 point, but we might need another stone back there, to get it
rollout
Spoiler
Entering on the 21 and slotting the 5-point comes out on top. Now that's a bot move if ever I saw one. The Herd's move is a close second, with the other vote-getting play not far behind that.
1. Rollout bar/21 6/5 Eq.: -0.243
0.397 0.126 0.024 - 0.603 0.322 0.015 CL -0.243 CF -0.243
[0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
2. Rollout bar/21 24/23 Eq.: -0.258 ( -0.015)
0.388 0.128 0.026 - 0.612 0.293 0.013 CL -0.258 CF -0.258
[0.003 0.005 0.004 - 0.003 0.003 0.001 CL 0.005 CF 0.005]
3. Rollout bar/24 13/9 Eq.: -0.266 ( -0.023)
0.386 0.136 0.019 - 0.614 0.276 0.019 CL -0.266 CF -0.266
[0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
4. Rollout bar/24 8/4 Eq.: -0.290 ( -0.047)
0.375 0.124 0.017 - 0.625 0.290 0.019 CL -0.290 CF -0.290
[0.003 0.005 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
5. Rollout bar/24 6/2 Eq.: -0.298 ( -0.055)
0.370 0.132 0.013 - 0.630 0.280 0.017 CL -0.298 CF -0.298
[0.003 0.005 0.002 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
6. Rollout bar/24 11/7 Eq.: -0.334 ( -0.090)
0.357 0.105 0.016 - 0.643 0.314 0.024 CL -0.334 CF -0.334
[0.003 0.004 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
7. Rollout bar/21 8/7 Eq.: -0.345 ( -0.102)
0.350 0.116 0.020 - 0.650 0.347 0.020 CL -0.345 CF -0.345
[0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
8. Rollout bar/21 11/10 Eq.: -0.348 ( -0.105)
0.356 0.125 0.021 - 0.644 0.344 0.034 CL -0.348 CF -0.348
[0.003 0.005 0.003 - 0.003 0.003 0.002 CL 0.006 CF 0.006]
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 902284890 and quasi-random dice
Play: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]
Cube: 0-ply cubeful prune [expert]