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Backgammon => Fibsboard Forum Matches => FFM 7 => Topic started by: ah_clem on December 01, 2010, 11:20:40 PM

Poll
Question: 4-2?<br.
Option 1: 13/7 votes: 7
Option 2: 8/4 8/6 votes: 0
Option 3: 8/4 6/4 votes: 0
Option 4: 8/2 votes: 0
Option 5: 13/9 8/6 votes: 0
Option 6: 13/11 8/4 votes: 0
Title: Game 5 move 8 The Herd to play4-2
Post by: ah_clem on December 01, 2010, 11:20:40 PM
(http://www.fibsboard.com/fibsboard-forum-match-7/game-5-move-8-the-herd-to-play4-2/?action=dlattach;attach=5395;image)

We have a non-trivial move to make.  Wake up, everybody.
Title: Re: Game 5 move 8 The Herd to play4-2
Post by: ah_clem on December 01, 2010, 11:25:11 PM
Spoiler

I see no reason to leave any blots about, and simply moving to the bar point looks like the most flexible structure.

The other two non-blot-leaving plays are probably not too far behind.  13/7.
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Title: Re: Game 5 move 8 The Herd to play4-2
Post by: ah_clem on December 02, 2010, 04:08:53 PM
Ok, maybe it's not that non-trivial.  I'll next this as soon as I get home to the computer with the match on it.
Title: Re: Game 5 move 8 The Herd to play4-2
Post by: ah_clem on December 02, 2010, 09:38:45 PM
gnu's opinion

Spoiler

I didn't bother to roll this one out.  Our choice is clearly correct, but I'm a bit surprised how much worse the other safe plays are.   I guess this move was trivial after all.  Sorry for waking everyone.


    1. Cubeful 2-ply    13/7                         Eq.:  +0.366
       0.717 0.078 0.002 - 0.283 0.034 0.000
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    2. Cubeful 2-ply    8/6 8/4                      Eq.:  +0.279 ( -0.087)
       0.683 0.083 0.002 - 0.317 0.044 0.000
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
    3. Cubeful 2-ply    8/4 6/4                      Eq.:  +0.214 ( -0.152)
       0.660 0.081 0.003 - 0.340 0.053 0.001
        2-ply cubeful prune [world class]


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