Fibsboard Forum Match 17 Game 2 Move 20 Herd to play

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32

[ah_clem]

Spoiler

If gammons counted I'd hit here, but with it being basically DMP I don't think hitting is the right idea - 13 rolls put us on the bar and we only have 17 covers.  I like 18/13 as it leaves only 2 shots and gives us at least a direct shot if he leaps our prime.

BTW, 15/13 18/15 is the same play as 18/13, so I substituted 18/16 15/12.

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[dorbel]

Spoiler

As always when a straggler is at the edge of the five prime, hitting is mandatory and any other play is hopelessly wrong. You can't just allow White into the outfield with his next six. I would combine that with 18/16, no need to give the 1/1 joker when it doesn't gain anything.

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[ah_clem]

Spoiler

I'm going to go along with Paul.  I was just compiling a set of "rules of thumb" the other day and "whack a blot on the edge of your prime" was one off them.  How quickly I forget...

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[ah_clem]

rollout

Spoiler

Hitting here is a must.  Anything else is a whopper, and at a score where gammons mattered, a really big whopper.



XGID=--aBBCBB-------A-gAbb-B-c-:0:0:1:32:4:0:1:5:10

X:Player 1   O:Player 2
Score is X:4 O:0 5 pt.(s) match.
+13-14-15-16-17-18------19-20-21-22-23-24-+
|       X     O  X |   | O  O     X     O |
|             O    |   | O  O     X     O |
|             O    |   |                O |
|             O    |   |                  |
|             7    |   |                  |
|                  |BAR|                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |                  |
|                  |   |    X             |
|                X |   | X  X  X  X       |
|                X |   | X  X  X  X  O    |
+12-11-10--9--8--7-------6--5--4--3--2--1-+
Pip count  X: 132  O: 104 X-O: 4-0/5 Crawford
Cube: 1
X to play 32

    1. XG Roller++ 18/16 5/2*                   eq:+0.556
      Player:   78.15% (G:24.47% B:0.68%)
      Opponent: 21.85% (G:6.03% B:0.15%)

    2. XG Roller++ 15/13 5/2*                   eq:+0.536 (-0.020)
      Player:   77.19% (G:24.29% B:0.72%)
      Opponent: 22.81% (G:7.22% B:0.17%)

    3. XG Roller++ 18/13                        eq:+0.439 (-0.117)
      Player:   72.26% (G:21.40% B:0.63%)
      Opponent: 27.74% (G:5.60% B:0.13%)

    4. 3-ply       18/16 15/12                  eq:+0.408 (-0.148)
      Player:   70.64% (G:19.92% B:0.39%)
      Opponent: 29.36% (G:5.06% B:0.07%)

    5. 2-ply       18/15 5/3                    eq:+0.332 (-0.225)
      Player:   66.87% (G:18.15% B:0.37%)
      Opponent: 33.13% (G:5.15% B:0.11%)


eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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